Introduction to Hurricane Melissa
Hurricane Melissa is at Category 5 strength in the Caribbean and is expected to move over Jamaica on Tuesday — the first of what could be multiple landfalls for the catastrophic, slow-moving storm, forecasters said.
The storm has started its turn to the north and will turn northeast at a slightly faster pace Tuesday. Its current track has it making landfall in Jamaica about 8 a.m. Tuesday some 60 miles west of Kingston then again in eastern Cuba, west of Guantánamo, overnight into Wednesday morning.
Current Situation in Jamaica
Jamaica was already experiencing tropical storm conditions by Monday evening while life-threatening wind conditions and storm surge were expected to begin reaching the island overnight, the hurricane center said.
“Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger,” the hurricane center’s latest forecast said.
Several towns along Jamaica’s southern coast already reported power outages as winds picked up throughout the night. More than 50,000 customers were without power. Landslides, fallen trees and downed power lines were reported ahead of the storm.
Damage and Fatalities
The erratic and slow-moving storm killed at least three people in Haiti and a fourth person in the Dominican Republic, where another person remains missing. Two people died in Jamaica over the weekend as they cut trees ahead of the storm, according to the country’s emergency management office.
In the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center is warning of extreme and prolonged amounts of rainfall that will result in numerous life-threatening flash floods, landslides and storm surge.
“With the slow movement of this system, it doesn’t allow you to recover. It’s going to sit there, pouring water while it’s barely moving and that is a significant challenge that we have to be aware of,” warned Evan Thompson, principal director at Jamaica’s meteorological service.
Critical Infrastructure at Risk
AccuWeather meteorologist Jonathan Porter said that critical infrastructure including Jamaica’s main international airport and power plants are located along the coast in Kingston, where a storm surge of up to 13 feet was expected.
“This can become a true humanitarian crisis very quickly, and there is likely going to be the need for a lot of international support,” Porter said.
As of 8 p.m. Monday, Melissa’s maximum sustained winds held steady at 175 mph as the storm was barely drifting northwest at 2 mph about 155 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 335 miles southwest of Guantánamo, Cuba.
Historical Significance
At that strength, it would be the strongest hurricane to hit the island since record-keeping began in 1851.
A storm of Category 4 or higher has not made landfall in Jamaica in 174 years of record-keeping. Hurricane Gilbert was a Category 3 storm when it hit the island in 1988. Hurricanes Ivan and Beryl were both Category 4, but they did not make landfall on the island, Thompson said.
Preparations and Warnings
The National Hurricane Service advised residents of Jamaica to prepare for the worst as the storm’s center moves over the island.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for Jamaica, eastern Cuban and the southeastern and central Bahamas. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Haiti.
The New York Times reported that the U.S. military has evacuated about 1,000 nonessential Defense Department workers and relatives from the U.S. Navy base at Guantánamo Bay. Approximately 3,000 residents remain there.
National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan in a live briefing Monday afternoon said strong winds in Melissa’s eyewall could completely destroy shelters, homes and buildings in Jamaica in its path, both on the coast and in central parts of the island as the center moves across during the day Tuesday. Melissa’s forward speed will increase and the eye will move “very quickly across the island,” he said.
Expected Rainfall and Storm Surge
Up to 40 inches of rain is forecast for some southern parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti as well as Jamaica through Wednesday, with the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti possibly seeing as much as 35 inches. Southeast Cuba could see up to 20 inches in some areas. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.
Hurricane Melissa is expected to make several landfalls across the Caribbean, including in Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas. (National Hurricane Center/Courtesy)
Humanitarian Crisis
“The mountainous terrain across these islands will amplify runoff and significantly increase the risk of life-threatening flash flooding, landslides and road washouts,” wrote AccuWeather meteorologists in a release. “These impacts could isolate communities across these islands for an extended period of time. This can quickly escalate into a humanitarian crisis, where a large number of people are in need of basic supplies such as food, safe drinking water, housing and medical care.”
Anticipating the hardship in store for his country, Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said, “I have been on my knees in prayer.”
Personal Stories
Hanna Mcleod, a 23-year-old hotel receptionist in Kingston, said she boarded up the windows at her home, where her husband and brother are staying. She stocked up on canned corned beef and mackerel and left candles and flashlights throughout the house.
“I just told them to keep the door closed,” she said. “I am definitely worried. This is actually the first time I’ll be experiencing this type of hurricane.”
Mandatory evacuations were ordered in flood-prone communities in Jamaica, with buses ferrying people to safe shelter.
Conclusion
Hurricane Melissa is a catastrophic storm that poses a significant threat to the Caribbean, particularly Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas. The storm’s slow movement and extreme rainfall will lead to life-threatening flash floods, landslides, and storm surge. It is essential for residents to prepare for the worst and follow evacuation orders. International support will likely be needed to respond to the humanitarian crisis that may unfold.
FAQs
Q: What is the current strength of Hurricane Melissa?
A: Hurricane Melissa is currently at Category 5 strength with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph.
Q: Where is Hurricane Melissa expected to make landfall?
A: Hurricane Melissa is expected to make landfall in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern or central Bahamas.
Q: What is the expected rainfall from Hurricane Melissa?
A: Up to 40 inches of rain is forecast for some southern parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti as well as Jamaica through Wednesday.
Q: What is the potential impact of Hurricane Melissa on critical infrastructure?
A: Critical infrastructure, including Jamaica’s main international airport and power plants, are at risk of significant damage or destruction.
Q: What is the current situation in Jamaica?
A: Jamaica is already experiencing tropical storm conditions, and life-threatening wind conditions and storm surge are expected to begin reaching the island overnight.
