Monday, September 21, 2026

The Padres aren’t dead, and the Dodgers still have plenty to lose

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Introduction to the NL West Rivalry

The home team was one strike from victory Friday night, when the Petco Park video board suddenly erupted in hues of pink and mint, flashing the preferred accompaniment to any game against the Dodgers: BEAT LA. Then came the 102-mph fastball, then a swing and a miss, and the San Diego Padres had indeed beaten the Dodgers. For Dodgers fans who thought the National League West had been won last weekend at Dodger Stadium, this just in from San Diego: The NL West is tied.

Current State of the NL West

These were words in this publication just five days ago: “The Dodgers now lead the National League West by two games, but it feels like 20.” The Dodgers had just swept the Padres, their only competition for the division title. The Dodgers were 8-2 against the Padres this season. There was a blue wave of emotion. The thing that happened last is the thing you remember best. “It’s natural,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “That’s the great thing about fandom. People get excited. That’s a great thing about sports.”

Manager’s Perspective

The feeling in the clubhouse last weekend? “In here? We played a great series, but there’s still a lot of baseball left to play,” Roberts said. “It wasn’t going to be won or lost then, and it’s not going to be won or lost this weekend.” The trouble is not with the emotion. The trouble is with the schedule. The number of games left after this weekend: 31. The number of Dodgers-Padres games left after this weekend: 0.

The Rivalry and Its Implications

This is baseball’s best rivalry, with a division title and potential first-round playoff bye on the line. The Dodgers and Padres should be facing each other to wrap up the season, with all that emotion bursting forth. Instead, the Dodgers finish the regular season against another traditional rival, the (checks notes) Seattle Mariners. There has been plenty of emotion among the Dodgers and Padres fan bases already this year, mostly in the form of angst. The Dodgers won the winter, and Padres fans wondered why their team was not keeping up with the competition. The Padres won the trade deadline, and Dodgers fans wondered why their team was not keeping up with the competition.

Injury Updates and Team Strategy

For the Dodgers, the cliche is about to be put to a real-life test: Getting a player off the injured list is just like getting a player in a trade. Reliever Tanner Scott was activated Friday. Reliever Kirby Yates could be activated as soon as Saturday. Infielder/outfielder Kiké Hernández could be activated next week, followed in some order by relievers Michael Kopech and Brock Stewart, infielder/outfielder Hyeseong Kim, infielder/outfielder Tommy Edman and third baseman Max Muncy. On Friday, infielder Alex Freeland hit his first major league home run, but infielder Buddy Kennedy (.287 OPS) went hitless, and the Dodgers burned their backup catcher to bat for him. They trusted outfielder Justin Dean to pinch-run and play center field, but not to bat. Alex Freeland celebrates after hitting a solo home run in the third inning of a 2-1 loss to the Padres on Friday. (Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

The Intensity of the Rivalry

On a hot August night, Petco Park was its usual lively self, with its usual sellout crowd, with Dodgers fans drowning out chants of “Let’s Go Padres” and Padres fans returning the favor at the sound of “Let’s Go Dodgers.” Amid intensity fit for October, the Dodgers and Padres each let a strong starting pitcher — Blake Snell for L.A., Yu Darvish for San Diego — continue rather than reflexively remove him for the third time through the lineup. How do you win in October, with pitchers like Snell and Darvish lined up? Is it with the home run? Only one major league team has more home runs than the Dodgers. The Dodgers scored their only run Friday on a home run. Is it with small ball? Only one major league team has fewer home runs than the Padres. The Padres scored both their runs in one inning Friday, with a rally that included three singles, a walk, a sacrifice bunt and a sacrifice fly.

Players’ Perspectives

The Padres dropped three sacrifice bunts Friday. They have 40 this season, the most in the majors. The Dodgers have eight, the fewest of any NL team. Before the game, I spoke with Mason Miller, the former Athletics All-Star closer turned Padres eighth-inning setup man. To this point in his career, Miller said, the biggest game of his career has been closing the A’s final game in Oakland last September. “I think I said it after that game: until I play in the playoffs, that will probably be my all-time baseball memory,” Miller said. “Now it doesn’t seem like I’ll have to wait that much longer to get that playoff taste.” Not much longer at all. As of Friday morning, Baseball Prospectus put the Dodgers’ chance of making the playoffs at 99.8% and the Padres’ chance at 99.6%.

Conclusion

Maybe this weekend won’t mark the last Dodgers-Padres game this season. What we really want is the first NL Championship Series between the Dodgers and the Padres, with the winner advancing to the World Series: SoCal vs. the World. The rivalry between the Dodgers and the Padres is one of the most intense in baseball, and it’s far from over. With both teams having a strong chance of making the playoffs, the excitement is building up for a potential postseason matchup.

FAQs

Q: What is the current state of the NL West standings?
A: The NL West is currently tied between the Dodgers and the Padres.
Q: How many games are left in the regular season after this weekend?
A: There are 31 games left in the regular season after this weekend.
Q: How many Dodgers-Padres games are left after this weekend?
A: There are no more Dodgers-Padres games left after this weekend.
Q: What is the Dodgers’ chance of making the playoffs?
A: The Dodgers’ chance of making the playoffs is 99.8% according to Baseball Prospectus.
Q: What is the Padres’ chance of making the playoffs?
A: The Padres’ chance of making the playoffs is 99.6% according to Baseball Prospectus.

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