Introduction to the NHL Draft Lottery

The Blackhawks enter the 2025 NHL Draft lottery in the exact same position as last year but with a different rooting interest. After finishing second-to-last in the league standings for the second consecutive season, the Hawks are guaranteed a top-four pick. They’ll find out in the lottery — which the NHL is conducting live in-studio for the first time at 6 p.m. Monday on ESPN — which of those four picks they’ll receive.

Understanding the Draft Lottery Odds

The Sharks yet again have the best odds of winding up No. 1 at 25.5%, while the Hawks yet again have the second-best odds at 13.5%, followed by the Predators at 11.5%, Flyers at 9.5% and Bruins at 8.5%. If the Hawks don’t get the No. 1 pick, they have a 14.1% chance of winning the No. 2 pick, a 30.7% chance of dropping to the No. 3 pick and a 41.7% chance of falling to the No. 4 pick.

Rooting Interest and Team Needs

For several reasons, however, the Hawks likely would be better off getting the No. 2 pick than the No. 1 pick — although the odds are they won’t get either. Defenseman Matthew Schaefer is considered the top prospect, but the next handful of players are all forwards, including consensus No. 2 prospect Michael Misa. The Hawks need another elite forward prospect much more than they need another elite defensive prospect. They’re already loaded with the latter.

Implications of Winning the No. 1 Pick

Moreover, if the Hawks win the No. 1 pick, they wouldn’t be allowed to move up in either of the next two years. By rule, teams can’t move up more than twice in a five-year span. In 2023, the Hawks moved up in the lottery from third-to-last in the league to No. 1 and drafted Connor Bedard. Although they’re not planning to continue being a bottom-five team, every non-playoff team is entered into the lottery, and even having a slim chance of getting lucky in 2026 or 2027 would be nice.

Top Forward Prospects

Beyond Misa — a 6-1 Ontario native who led the Ontario Hockey League with 134 points in 65 games this season — the other top forward prospects include Porter Martone, James Hagens, Anton Frondell and Caleb Desnoyers.

Conclusion

The Blackhawks’ position in the 2025 NHL Draft lottery presents both opportunities and challenges. While the team has a significant chance of securing a top pick, the specific needs of the team, such as acquiring an elite forward prospect, must be considered. The rules governing draft lottery movements also play a crucial role in the team’s strategy. Ultimately, the outcome of the lottery will significantly impact the Hawks’ future and their pursuit of becoming a competitive force in the league.

FAQs

• Q: What are the Blackhawks’ chances of getting the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft lottery?
  A: The Blackhawks have a 13.5% chance of winning the No. 1 pick.
• Q: Who is considered the top prospect in the 2025 NHL Draft?
  A: Defenseman Matthew Schaefer is considered the top prospect.
• Q: Why might the Hawks prefer the No. 2 pick over the No. 1 pick?
  A: The Hawks need another elite forward prospect more than they need another elite defensive prospect, and the No. 2 pick is likely to be a forward, such as Michael Misa.
• Q: What are the implications of the Hawks winning the No. 1 pick in terms of future draft lotteries?
  A: If the Hawks win the No. 1 pick, they wouldn’t be allowed to move up in either of the next two years, as teams can’t move up more than twice in a five-year span.