What You Need To Know
- 2024 was forecasted to be the most active Atlantic Hurricane Season on record
- Through early Sept. 2024 there have only been six named storms
- “Atlantic Niña” could have contributed to the lack of developing systems
However, as we approach the midway point between the season, the underperformance, so far, in the Atlantic basin has many questioning whether the season was overforecasted or the second half will see an “explosion” of activity.
2024 Atlantic Season predictions
Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) made their seasonal forecasts back in May and had above-average, ranging from 17 to 25 tropical cyclones (named storms) for NOAA and 23 named storms for CSU.
The average number of named storms is around 14 per season. So why the extreme forecasts?
Factors Contributing to High Number of Storm Predictions
The factors that contributed to the high number of storm predictions include near-record warmth of the Atlantic Ocean water temperatures and a La Niña. The La Niña creates a cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures but also reduces the wind shear and Atlantic trade winds, resulting in favorable conditions for storm development.
Strong Start to the Season
The season began strong. Alberto formed in mid-June over the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico.
Next came Beryl, a long-lived storm that formed late June, south of Cabo Verde and traversed the Atlantic Ocean, intensifying into a Category 5 hurricane on July 2, becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record.
A vehicle is stranded in high waters on a flooded highway in Houston, on Monday, July 8, 2024, after Beryl came ashore in Texas as a hurricane and dumped heavy rains along the coast. (AP Photo/Juan A. Lozano)
Other storms that followed included Hurricane Debby and Hurricane Ernesto. Here’s a look at the 2024 hurricane season so far.
“Atlantic Niña”
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic remained extremely warm for much of the year. However, since early June, the central equatorial Atlantic has been about 0.5 to 1.0 degrees Celsius colder than average for this time of the year.
Dubbed, “Atlantic Niña,” this phenomenon has shifted the track of the “seed” storms, or disturbances that move west off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean and typically develop into intense storms. According to NOAA, “a stronger West African Monsoon, the track of these waves has shifted north toward cooler waters and overall, less conducive conditions needed for tropical cyclone formation.”
Still a Lot of the Season to Go
“We are just coming up on the halfway mark of the hurricane season, usually the time of peak activity,” says Dr. Frank Marks, a meteorologist in the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.
Location is key. “For the month of September into early October, the most likely place to watch for tropical cyclone development is still the central Atlantic in the Caribbean. However, there is always a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of Mexico along an old front.”
Stressing that systems that form in the Gulf of Mexico are dangerous, “As they are likely to strike land in 2-3 days rather than being able to track them across the Atlantic for a week or more.”
Conclusion
As we approach the peak of the hurricane season, it is essential to remain vigilant and prepared for potential storms. While the current activity has been below forecasted levels, it only takes one storm to cause significant damage and disruption.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why were there only six named storms as of early September?
A: The “Atlantic Niña” phenomenon has shifted the track of the “seed” storms, or disturbances that move west off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean and typically develop into intense storms, reducing the likelihood of tropical cyclone formation.
Q: Will the season be a bust for forecasters?
A: Each hurricane season is different, with different changes in the weather patterns that affect the likelihood of storms to form. As Dr. Frank Marks explains, “You need to remember that as Mark Twain once said, ‘Climate is what you expect, but weather is what you get.'”
Q: What is the most likely place to watch for tropical cyclone development?
A: For the month of September into early October, the most likely place to watch for tropical cyclone development is still the central Atlantic in the Caribbean. However, there is always a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of Mexico along an old front.
