Solid Job Growth
New York City finally regained all the jobs lost in the pandemic recession earlier this year, according to seasonally adjusted data from the state Labor Department. The city will end 2024 with a strong increase of about 80,000 jobs, reaching a record 4.8 million.
Wall Street Leads
Wall Street profits could skyrocket to as much as $46 billion this year from an average of $24 billion in 2022 and 2023, according to the state comptroller. A 15% increase in bonuses would make the bonus pool almost $40 billion, a shot to the local economy. Wall Street accounts for 19% of all state tax revenue and a little less than 10% of all city taxes.
Crypto Boost
The crypto industry will provide another shot to the financial industry. With the Biden Administration determined to regulate the crypto industry, many crypto founders took their companies abroad, says Ogle, a specialist in crypto safety who uses only one name and is advising the Trump family on their efforts to create their own crypto operation. "You have companies that are coming back to the U.S. that left during the Biden Administration," he said based on conversations he has had with many CEOs he knows. "They will come back to New York City."
Tourism and Construction
Beyond Wall Street, tourism has helped spur the economy. Hospitality has added 19,000 jobs this year, and hotel occupancy in October hit 91%, while average room rates soared well past $300 a night. Visitors to NYC will top 64 million this year, the city tourism agency said Friday, and the 2019 record of 68 million tourists should be broken next year.
Uncertainties Abound
But other policies embraced by Trump and Republicans in Congress could upend the bullish forecast. Tariffs on the scale he has promised could send consumer prices in New York higher and force the Federal Reserve Board to raise interest rates, hamstringing the economy. Deporting hundreds of thousands of undocumented workers here could create a severe labor shortage here. Slashing federal aid to the state and city could lead to a budget crisis and to sharp reductions in aid payments that many residents depend on.
Conclusion
Despite some December jitters, the outlook for New York City’s economy remains bright. With solid job growth, a potential crypto boost, and a strong tourism industry, the city is poised for a strong 2025. However, uncertainties abound, and the city’s leaders will need to navigate the challenges posed by Trump’s policies to ensure that the city’s economy continues to thrive.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the projected job growth in New York City for 2025?
A: The city is expected to end 2025 with a strong increase of about 80,000 jobs, reaching a record 4.8 million.
Q: What is the potential impact of Trump’s policies on the city’s economy?
A: Tariffs, labor shortages, and reduced aid payments could upend the city’s economy, while a crypto boost and strong tourism industry could provide a counterbalance.
Q: What is the current state of the city’s construction sector?
A: The city’s construction sector continues to lag, down about 20,000 jobs from its pre-pandemic peak, but there is an expectation of improvement next year.
