Control of the House: Early Signs to Watch on Election Night
Election forecasters have identified dozens of highly contested seats that will determine whether Republicans keep the majority or Democrats return to power after two years in the minority wilderness. While not all battleground seats are created equal, there are a handful of contests that strategists in both parties will be watching with particular attention as they seek early signs of which way the political winds might be blowing.
Virginia’s 2nd and 7th Districts
The two suburban battleground seats in Virginia could easily split between the two parties, and not reveal much about national trends across the country. But one party winning both would be an indication of good things to come for that side. In the Virginia Beach area, first-term Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) is facing Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal for Virginia’s 2nd District. The GOP is confident about keeping the seat, so a loss there could be a sign of consequential Democratic gains.
Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts
Two GOP incumbents are facing tough reelection bids in the Hawkeye State — Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st District and Rep. Zach Nunn in the 3rd — presenting Democrats with a pair of rare pickup opportunities in a Midwest region dominated by Republicans. The Cook Political Report has both races in its "toss-up" column. Holding both seats would suggest a good night for Republicans, while Democrats say a victory in at least one of the races would indicate things are going their way.
New York Incumbents
Both parties will have their eyes locked on New York — especially Long Island and the Hudson Valley — on election night, where five districts with first-term Republican incumbents will give early signs about the overall House battlefield. New York Republican Reps. Nick LaLota, Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, and Brandon Williams are all defending seats in districts President Biden won in 2020, making them top pickup targets for Democrats.
North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District
First-term Rep. Don Davis (D) is facing Republican Laurie Buckhout in a district that includes the northeastern part of the state and has a significant Black population. The district was a Democratic stronghold for decades, but it was recently redrawn to be much more competitive and is considered a toss-up. Democrats, citing internal polls, say Davis is safe. But North Carolina is also a battleground state at the presidential level, and the result in the 1st District may hinge on the bigger battle at the top of the ticket.
Ohio’s 9th and 13th Congressional Districts
Two key races in Ohio could also provide early hints about who will control the House. In the 9th Congressional District, Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), the longest-serving woman in congressional history, is fending off a challenge from Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin. Trump won the district by 2.9 percentage points in 2020, making the area a key pickup opportunity for Republicans.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents of this cycle, facing state Sen. Tony Vargas (D) in a rematch of their 2022 contest, and results are expected to be known on election night. The Democratic strategist characterized the race as "a must win" if the party is to have any shot at flipping control of the lower chamber.
Maine’s 2nd District
Three-term Democrat Jared Golden is a perennial target of Republicans in Maine’s sprawling 2nd District, which is one of the most rural in the country. But they’ve been unsuccessful in picking off the former Marine, a veteran of both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars who has built an independent brand on Capitol Hill by bucking his left-leaning party on high-profile issues.
Conclusion
While these races are not the only ones to watch on election night, they will provide early signs of which party is likely to hold the gavel in the next Congress. As the results come in, it will be important to pay attention to the margins of victory and the voter demographics to get a sense of what to expect elsewhere.
FAQs
Q: What are the key races to watch on election night?
A: The key races to watch on election night include Virginia’s 2nd and 7th Districts, Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, New York’s 1st Congressional District, North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, Ohio’s 9th and 13th Congressional Districts, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, and Maine’s 2nd District.
Q: What are the implications of a Democratic win in these races?
A: A Democratic win in these races would indicate a strong night for the party and suggest that they are on the path to taking control of the House.
Q: What are the implications of a Republican win in these races?
A: A Republican win in these races would indicate a strong night for the party and suggest that they are likely to retain control of the House.
Q: What is the significance of ranked-choice voting in Maine’s 2nd District?
A: Ranked-choice voting in Maine’s 2nd District means that voters can rank their candidates in order of preference. This can lead to delays in the results, but it also allows for a more nuanced understanding of the vote.
