Introduction to Tariffs
President Donald Trump’s suspended tariffs on many goods from Canada and Mexico are set to take hold April 2, with more import taxes on other products and countries coming soon. That means consumers may start to see price hikes at the grocery store within weeks, especially for some of the least shelf-stable items.
Impact on Fresh Produce
Imports make up an increasing share of the fresh produce sold in the United States — around 60% of fruits and 40% of vegetables, according to 2023 data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Trump has hit China with 20% higher tariffs than those already in force. That country, Mexico and Canada together produce over 75% of American vegetable imports.
Affected Items
The levies are likely to hit several staples in shoppers’ grocery carts, an NBC News analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data found, from berries to avocados to potatoes. The most affected items will be those that are largely sourced from Mexico, Canada or China.
Specific Products
For instance, the U.S. imports 100% of its fresh mangoes and limes, USDA data shows. Mexico supplies about 60% of the guavas and mangoes sold in the U.S. and about 72% of lemons and limes. The U.S. also imports high levels of avocados (91.9% are imported) and raspberries (91.4% are imported), and over 90% of both products’ imported stocks come from Mexico.
Other Impacted Products
Items like frozen fish filets from China and lobster and pork from Canada could also be heavily impacted, census data shows.
Effect on Consumers and Grocery Stores
Some larger grocery chains may be able to absorb costs or reconfigure their supply chains, said Jenny Zegler, the director of food and drink at market research firm Mintel, but smaller ones may struggle. She identified protein, produce and dairy from China, Canada and Mexico as categories that will likely become more expensive.
Consumer Behavior
Zegler pointed out that even well-off consumers have been getting more creative with their grocery shopping to handle inflation, including before Trump returned to office. Many are opting for cheaper retailers like Aldi or Walmart, and spreading out their shopping between their usual grocery store, discount options and online delivery services, she said.
Compromises Due to Higher Costs
A Mintel report last year found 26% of U.S. grocery shoppers had recently switched their primary grocer, with 54% of adults making compromises in their food and beverage choices due to higher costs. Tariffs would pile on more.
Coping with Tariffs
Consumers looking to get around tariffs can sometimes consider alternative products — like canned fruit instead of fresh fruit, Zegler said. She also recommended checking out local options at farmers markets, where prices for some items may become increasingly competitive with imported ones’, and exploring generic brands. She also said some households could opt to cut back on certain ingredients altogether if prices spike and stay elevated.
Conclusion
The upcoming tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico are likely to have a significant impact on the prices of fresh produce and other grocery items in the United States. Consumers can expect to see price hikes in the coming weeks, especially for items largely sourced from these countries. However, by being flexible with their shopping habits and considering alternative products, consumers can mitigate the effects of these tariffs.
FAQs
Q: What products will be most affected by the tariffs?
A: The products most affected by the tariffs will be those that are largely sourced from Mexico, Canada, or China, such as fresh produce, avocados, raspberries, frozen fish filets, lobster, and pork.
Q: How can consumers cope with the tariffs?
A: Consumers can cope with the tariffs by considering alternative products, such as canned fruit instead of fresh fruit, checking out local options at farmers markets, exploring generic brands, and cutting back on certain ingredients if prices spike.
Q: Will all grocery stores be affected equally by the tariffs?
A: No, larger grocery chains may be able to absorb costs or reconfigure their supply chains, but smaller ones may struggle.
Q: What percentage of fresh produce is imported in the United States?
A: According to 2023 data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, around 60% of fruits and 40% of vegetables sold in the United States are imported.
Q: Can consumers expect to see immediate price hikes?
A: Yes, consumers may start to see price hikes at the grocery store within weeks, especially for some of the least shelf-stable items.
