By the Polls, Cuomo’s the Early Frontrunner. But How Does Local Polling Work, Really?
Dear New Yorkers,
It’s been another hectic week for Mayor Eric Adams. Calls for him to step down or be removed are getting louder, particularly after his four top deputy mayors announced they’d resign. Meanwhile, Gov. Kathy Hochul met with elected officials to talk about the mayor’s fate — and is moving toward legally sanctioning him. And Adams returned to court over the Trump admin pushing to drop his federal corruption charges.
Each day brings us something new to report on — and closer to the June 24 primary. So this week instead of focusing on the storm around the mayor, let’s talk about how we track who might be our next leader: polling.
If you go by polls right now, the frontrunner for mayor is our former governor Andrew Cuomo — who isn’t even in the race. What’s up with that?
Our reporter Rachel Kahn spoke to experts about the science, strategy, and cost behind the local polls you’ll see in the headlines, and how to tell which ones are trustworthy.
What to Keep in Mind
- Sample size and methodology are super important.
- Pay attention to who is conducting the poll — and who’s paying for it.
- Don’t expect early polls to be a crystal ball when so much is up in the air.
What We’re Reading …
- City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (no relation) is being recruited to run for mayor — but is it too late to raise the money?
- President Trump is trying to kill congestion pricing, but Hochul is fighting back.
What’s Ahead …
Days until the June primary: 124
Feb. 25: Ballot petitioning begins. (More on that below.)
March 17: The next deadline for city campaign finance disclosures. (This is when we can see who donated to candidates, and by how much.)
March 25: Special election to replace Councilmember Kalman Yeger in City Council District 44. Are you in that Brooklyn district? Find out here.
Your Election Questions, Answered
❓Steph H. asks: When does petitioning begin?! I think that’ll tell who’s running.
Answer: Yes, you’re right! Petitioning starts in less than a week, on Feb. 25, and runs through April 3. That means you’ll start to see people on the street asking voters for signatures to get their candidate on the ballot. And at the end of the process — when election officials check signatures and certify candidates — we’ll know exactly who got on the June ballot … and who didn’t make the cut.
The petitioning season will also give us a clue as to who’s trying to make it on the ballot who hasn’t already announced their candidacy. So, if you see petitioners out there gathering signatures for new and notable 2025 candidates (we’re looking at you, Cuomo) … Drop us a line!
Have a question for our election team? Reply back to this email or send your questions to ask@thecity.nyc.
THE CAMPAIGN KICKER: After Trump’s border czar told the mayor on TV he’d be “up his butt” on immigration if he didn’t do what they wanted, Adams told NY1 it was all jokes and Tom Homan apologized. “We’re two ex-police officers, this is what we do. We joke at each other,” the mayor said. … OK!
Conclusion
In conclusion, while polls can be an important tool in understanding the state of the election, it’s essential to keep in mind the limitations and potential biases associated with them. As we move forward, it’s crucial to stay informed and critical in our analysis of polling data, taking into account factors such as sample size, methodology, and who is conducting the poll.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the significance of petitioning in the election process?
A: Petitioning is an important step in the election process, as it allows candidates to gather the necessary signatures to get on the ballot. This process also gives us a glimpse into who is trying to make it on the ballot who hasn’t already announced their candidacy.
Q: How do I stay informed about the election?
A: You can stay informed by following reputable news sources, attending local events, and engaging with local candidates and organizations.
Q: What is the June primary date?
A: The June primary is scheduled for June 24.
