NYC Is in Store for an LA-Level Housing Loss Calamity in Floods, Report Predicts
New York City could lose up to 19,300 homes in the next 15 years due to flooding from high tides and storms — more than the toll of 2012’s Hurricane Sandy — estimates a forthcoming report by the Regional Plan Association.
The region encompassing Westchester and Long Island could lose tens of thousands more units of housing by 2040 in a major storm that has a 1% chance of happening in any given year. The grim projections convey how climate change could exacerbate New York’s already dire housing crisis, with reverberations well beyond the most urban areas.
The New York region has already gotten a taste of destruction from coastal flooding and its impact beyond municipal borders. Sandy destroyed or damaged about 100,000 homes on Long Island, and damaged nearly 70,000 units of housing in New York City, with about 20% made uninhabitable. Future destruction from storms and flooding is projected to be worse.
"We’re going to experience both a gradual ramping up and a couple of shocks," said Moses Gates, vice president for housing and neighborhood planning at RPA. "We’re going to have Sandy-type events that are going to leave a lot of homes uninhabitable all at once, and we’re going to see a lot of people without other options trying to find housing."
Empty Lots Endure
The Queens neighborhoods of the Rockaways and Broad Channel contain the most housing at risk in the five boroughs, according to RPA’s research, followed by waterfront neighborhoods in Queens and Brooklyn — including Howard Beach, Hamilton Beach, South Ozone Park, Bergen Beach, Canarsie and Flatlands. Many of those neighborhoods already contend with regular flooding from high tides, made higher by sea level rise.
Basement Apartments at Risk
Multiple flood-protection projects along the city’s coastline are completed or in the works, from flood walls and berms, to raised streets and improved drainage. The RPA’s housing loss projections did not factor in the impact such sea walls and other projects could have — nor did it include housing at risk of damage or destruction from stormwater flooding, like the kind from the remnants of Hurricane Ida in 2021.
Flood-Prone Neighborhoods
Sea levels around New York City have already risen about a foot since 1900, a higher rate than the global average, and they’re projected to rise more: between one and two feet by the 2050s, according to the New York City Panel on Climate Change. Higher seas mean worse storm surges and more frequent flooding during high tides.
Conclusion
The report’s projections paint a dire picture of the potential impact of climate change on New York City’s housing market. With the region already facing a dire housing crisis, the threat of widespread flooding and destruction looms large. It’s essential to take proactive measures to mitigate the effects of climate change and ensure that the city’s residents are protected from the devastating consequences of sea level rise and more frequent flooding.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the projected impact of climate change on New York City’s housing market?
- The Regional Plan Association estimates that up to 19,300 homes could be lost in the next 15 years due to flooding from high tides and storms.
- What are the most flood-prone neighborhoods in New York City?
- The Queens neighborhoods of the Rockaways and Broad Channel, as well as waterfront neighborhoods in Queens and Brooklyn, are among the most at risk.
- How can the city mitigate the effects of climate change on its housing market?
- Building more residences in and around New York City, investing in flood-protection projects, and supporting residents in their daily lives and in the event of disasters are all crucial steps in addressing the projected housing crisis.
