The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Season for the Record Books
What You Need To Know
- The GFS model did well with several tropical systems this season from formation to dissipation
- Hurricane Hunters happen to be at the right place to survey Hurricane Oscar
- Models don’t do well with precursor small-scale tropical systems
But no one could have predicted how the actual season would pan out, with five storms making landfall in the United States, three of them in Florida, with these storms causing fatalities and massive destruction.
First half of the season
The season officially began on June 19 with Tropical Storm Alberto. It was followed by Beryl, Chris, Debby, and Ernesto.
Beryl and Debby became the most notable storms during the first half of the season, as both made landfall in the U.S. Beryl made the history books, reaching Category 5 status earlier in the season than any other storm.
Late summer lull
After Ernesto dissipated on Aug. 20, there seemed to be a quiet period. With hurricane activity in the Atlantic subsiding near the peak of hurricane season, the validity of seasonal forecasts was in doubt.
It’s important to note that it’s not that there wasn’t any activity. Hurricane Francine developed in the Caribbean Sea and moved into the Gulf of Mexico before landfall in Louisiana on Sept. 11.
“As is often the case with seasonal hurricane activity, there isn’t usually just one cause for it being active or quiet,” says Meteorologist Craig Setzer, a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and Hurricane Preparedness Specialist.
He adds, “This year, it appeared to be a combination of very dry air and an increase in Saharan dust outbreaks along with warmer than normal air temperatures in the middle-and-upper parts of the atmosphere that created the mid-seasonal lull.” Less unstable conditions existed and tropical cyclones need instability for development.
Mid-September activity increases
As soon as the climatological peak of hurricane season was reached (Sept. 10), tropical activity seemed to awaken. Tropical Storm Gordon formed on Sept. 13 in the central-eastern Atlantic, but remained over the open Atlantic and never surpassed tropical storm strength.
Mid-Sept. also brought the formation of Helene, one of the costliest and deadliest storms this season. Helene would make landfall near Perry, Florida on Sept. 26.
Models and forecast track cones
From tropical storm to landfall was only a matter of days for Hurricane Helene, and knowing the track of the storm was vital to protect lives and property. Various data models assist meteorologists in forecasting, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses these models to create a forecast track cone.
“The National Hurricane Center relies heavily on global and regional (hurricane) models, which they call ‘guidance’ or ‘aides’ to help create a forecast track,” says Setzer.
Regional forecasting models
Another type of model the NHC uses to refine its forecast tracks is the regional hurricane model. Referred to as regional because, as Setzer says, “They don’t cover the whole globe, just the region of a hurricane.” This model became vital during Hurricane Milton.
Adding, “The Hurricane Analysis Forecast System (HAFS) version B did a good job not only predicting Milton’s intensity but also predicting when it would strengthen and weaken based on internal storm dynamics.”
Models aren’t exact
The NHC releases outlooks every six hours during the season for the tropical basins, including the Atlantic. Those include both a two-day graphical tropical weather outlook and a seven-day graphical tropical weather outlook. This year, both Hurricanes Milton and Oscar precursor storms were given low odds of development, only to then form within 12 to 24 hours.
“Milton was fairly well predicted after the area of convection started to consolidate in the western Gulf of Mexico. Prior to that, there were several areas the models seemed to focus on for development, but it didn’t occur,” explains Setzer.
Adding, “Oscar was such a small system, it likely was underrepresented in the data going into the model, and then the model has difficulty in the handling of a very small atmospheric feature.”
Conclusion
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was one for the record books, with five storms making landfall in the United States, three of them in Florida, with these storms causing fatalities and massive destruction. While the season did not quite live up to the early forecast, it was still a season with significant impact.
FAQs
Q: What is the GFS model?
A: The GFS model is a global model that has shown improved skill in predicting tropical cyclone development well ahead of other models.
Q: What is the Hurricane Analysis Forecast System (HAFS) version B?
A: The HAFS version B is a regional model that did a good job predicting the intensity and track of Hurricane Milton.
Q: What are the challenges of predicting small-scale tropical systems?
A: Small-scale tropical systems, such as Hurricane Oscar, are challenging to predict due to the limited data available and the model’s difficulty in handling small-scale features.
Q: What is the purpose of the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) outlooks?
A: The NHC releases outlooks every six hours during the season for the tropical basins, including the Atlantic, to provide timely and accurate information to the public and emergency management officials.
