Trump’s Immigration and Tariff Policies Would Devastate NYC Economy
At Sunday’s rally at Madison Square Garden, Donald Trump yet again pledged to “launch the largest deportation program in American history.” According to him, deporting millions of immigrants, including those who are undocumented and those who are here legally, will free up millions of jobs, especially for Black and Hispanic Americans.
The Republican presidential candidate has also contended during the campaign that imposing tariffs on all imports into the United States will be “beautiful,” as the revenue will allow the government to reduce taxes while leading to a boom in domestic manufacturing.
But virtually no reputable economist or scholar of immigration believes he is right on either count. A tiny minority of economists say he could be right on tariffs, but the vast majority say he is completely wrong.
Reliant on Immigrants
About 310,000 New York City workers were undocumented in 2022, according to the Center for Migration Studies, and that number has almost certainly increased with the recent surge of asylum seekers.
Those workers represent at least 7% of the city’s entire labor force — and could be among the first targets of a Trump mass deportation effort. About a third work in services, according to the Center; 19% in management, business, science and arts; 16% in construction and maintenance; 15% in production, transportation and material moving, and 14% in sales and office staff.
NYC Consumer Pain
Trump’s immigration and tariff policies would have a devastating impact on the New York City economy, according to economists who study the city.
Mass deportations would reduce the city’s workforce by hundreds of thousands of people, crippling businesses, experts say. Since immigrants spend what they earn, the economy also stands to lose billions of dollars in economic activity.
At the same time, Trump’s vast tariffs would increase prices sharply in New York, which would be especially burdensome for lower-income workers who are already stressed. Meanwhile, the city would not benefit even if manufacturing activity increased sharply, economists told THE CITY.
Businesses Would Suffer
Undocumented workers also pay about $3 billion in New York state and local taxes. On the federal level, they pay Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes even though they are unlikely to qualify for those benefits.
Businesses would also face difficult choices in whether to protect their workers or aid authorities in finding them.
Conclusion
Trump’s immigration and tariff policies would have a devastating impact on the New York City economy, causing a significant loss of jobs, economic activity, and consumer spending. The city’s reliance on immigrant workers and the burden of tariffs on consumers would be particularly felt.
FAQs
Q: What is the current number of undocumented workers in New York City?
A: About 310,000 New York City workers were undocumented in 2022, according to the Center for Migration Studies.
Q: How would Trump’s immigration policies affect the New York City economy?
A: Mass deportations would reduce the city’s workforce by hundreds of thousands of people, crippling businesses, and causing a loss of billions of dollars in economic activity. Tariffs would increase prices sharply in New York, especially for lower-income workers.
Q: How would Trump’s tariff policies affect New York City?
A: Trump’s vast tariffs would increase prices sharply in New York, which would be especially burdensome for lower-income workers who are already stressed. The city would not benefit even if manufacturing activity increased sharply, economists say.
Q: What is the Partnership for New York City’s stance on immigration policy?
A: The Partnership for New York City, which represents the city’s large financial, real estate, and professional service firms, affirms its support for pro-immigration policies, stating that immigration policy determines the ability of American business to attract the global talent required to stay at the forefront of innovation and growth.
