Red Flag Warning Issued for Tri-State Area due to Extreme Fire Danger
Dangerous Conditions
The fire danger across parts of the tri-state area stands at an extreme level, prompting a red flag warning. The combination of extremely dry ground, low relative humidity, and gusty wind creates the perfect environment for wildfires to start and spread quickly.
Drought Conditions
We’ve been saying it for weeks: this has been an exceptionally dry Fall. September managed only about an inch and a half of rain, with most of that coming at the tail end of the month. October was even drier, bringing weeks without a measurable drop of rain at Central Park.
Emergency Burn Bans
An emergency burn ban has been in effect across all Connecticut state parks since October 26. New Jersey is under stage 3 fire restrictions, meaning no charcoal fires are allowed, and all fires in wooded areas are prohibited. Only burning with an elevated stove using propane, natural gas, or electricity is allowed.
Fire Safety
Under the current extreme fire danger, it is best to be extra cautious and avoid any type of flame outside – that includes camp fires, grilling, or leaf-burning. Additionally, be extremely cautious with cigarette ashes and butts, and dispose of them properly to avoid starting a fire.
Red Flag Warnings
Red flag warnings are issued when conditions conducive to fire growth reach a critical level. This is determined by looking at the relative humidity, maximum wind gusts, and available dry brush.
The Perfect Storm
The extreme fire danger comes behind a cold front that moved through the region on Friday morning, bringing much drier air into the region and significantly dropping our relative humidity. When relative humidity levels get near 30% or below, fire danger skyrockets. The drier the atmosphere, the higher the fire risk.
Winds and Kindling
The cold front also kicks up the wind, with sustained winds of 10 to 20 miles per hour and gusts up to 30 miles per hour providing more than enough movement to spread fires very quickly, making them difficult to contain. To get a fire started, you need kindling, and there is an abundance of it thanks to the staggering lack of rain so far this season.
Historical Context
Since climate records began in 1869 in Central Park, there has never been an entire month without measurable rain. October 2024 was officially the driest calendar month ever recorded, edging out the previous record of 0.02 inches, set over 75 years ago in June 1949. This nearly bone-dry October, preceded by a relatively pitiful September, has left us with a season-to-date rainfall deficit of over 7 inches. We have not seen a start to Autumn this dry in over 130 years.
Conclusion
The exceptionally dry conditions increase the amount of available dry brush, literally contributing more fuel to our fires. This makes it easier for fires to catch and spread rapidly. With our rain deficit continuing to grow, expect our fire concerns to continue. Any rain that we manage to get will not be enough to even begin to erase the deficit in which we’re found ourselves. Until our drought-busting rain comes, expect our fire concerns to continue.
FAQs
Q: What is a red flag warning?
A: A red flag warning is issued when conditions conducive to fire growth reach a critical level, determined by looking at relative humidity, maximum wind gusts, and available dry brush.
Q: What are the current fire restrictions in New Jersey?
A: New Jersey is under stage 3 fire restrictions, meaning no charcoal fires are allowed, and all fires in wooded areas are prohibited. Only burning with an elevated stove using propane, natural gas, or electricity is allowed.
Q: How can I stay safe during extreme fire danger?
A: Avoid any type of flame outside, including camp fires, grilling, or leaf-burning. Be extremely cautious with cigarette ashes and butts, and dispose of them properly to avoid starting a fire.
