Thursday, October 2, 2025

4th of July Forecast

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What You Need To Know

  • Last year, we had rain in the afternoon on the Fourth of July, but it was dry for the fireworks
  • Temperatures have only been over 100 degrees once on July 4
  • It’s been dry on the Fourth of July for six of the past seven years

The forecast this year for the Fourth is for a steamy day, with a small chance of an afternoon storm. The risk is only about 20%. If we do get a storm, the trend is for the rain to be done well before the fireworks.

The Wettest Years

The rain chance is small, and certainly will not set a record like in 1981. That Fourth of July saw 1.76 inches of rain fall. It ranked as the wettest Fourth of July in the past 155 years for New York City.

In second place for the rain record was 1.20 inches, which happened in 1872 and 1895.

The Hottest Years

For temperatures, there have been hot and cold years. The most recent hot year was in 2010, when readings reached 96 degrees. The hottest of all time was in 1949, when the thermometer reached 102. That’s the only year where readings reached triple digits.

The Coldest Years

There have been cool holidays, too, but cool weather on the Fourth of July is rare. The coolest reading ever was in 1986, when the low temperature was 55 degrees. Overall, all but one of the top five coolest temperatures happened before 1992.

What to Expect this Year

The forecast this year for the Fourth is for a steamy day, with a small chance of an afternoon storm. The risk is only about 20%. If we do get a storm, the trend is for the rain to be done well before the fireworks.

Conclusion

As we celebrate the Fourth of July, remember that the weather can be unpredictable. While this year’s forecast looks steamy with a small chance of an afternoon storm, it’s always important to be prepared for any situation.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What was the hottest temperature ever recorded on the Fourth of July in New York City?
A: 102 degrees, in 1949.

Q: What was the wettest Fourth of July in New York City?
A: 1981, with 1.76 inches of rain.

Q: What is the average temperature on the Fourth of July in New York City?
A: Not available.

Q: Is it rare to have hot weather on the Fourth of July in New York City?
A: Yes, cool weather on the Fourth of July is rare.

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