What You Need To Know
- NOAA predicts above normal activity this hurricane season
- Atlantic sea surface temperatures are experiencing record warmth
- La Niña conditions are expected during the peak of hurricane season
NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA’s mid-season forecast isn’t too different from the early season. Above-normal activity across the Atlantic basin this year is still forecasted. NOAA’s outlook predicts an 85% chance of an above normal season, a 10% chance of a near normal season and a 5% chance of a below normal season.
Forecast Details
NOAA forecasts a likely range of 17 to 24 named storms, which is down one total named storm from their earlier prediction, of which 8 to 13 could become hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes, which are a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This updated forecast includes the four named storms so far this season. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
Why This Season is Expected to be Active
Researchers look at a variety of factors to make their prediction. Current El Niño conditions are forecast to transition to La Niña conditions later this summer or fall, leading to more favorable conditions for tropical development. La Niña conditions typically favor more hurricane activity in the Atlantic because of weaker vertical wind shear and more instability across the main development region.
Sea surface temperatures are also running well above normal in the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Atlantic, including the main development region. Some areas are experiencing record warmth. Warm ocean water helps fuel tropical systems, and combined with the effects of La Niña, it is expected to be an active Atlantic hurricane season.
Preparation is Key
Remember, predictions of the season’s activity are not predictions of exactly how many storms will make landfall in a particular place. Individual storms make impacts, regardless of how active (or not) a season is. Coastal residents should do what they can to make sure they’re prepared every year.
Learn More About Hurricanes
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Conclusion
NOAA’s mid-season forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicting above-normal activity, with a likely range of 17 to 24 named storms. The forecast includes the effects of La Niña conditions and record warmth in the Atlantic sea surface temperatures. It’s essential for coastal residents to stay prepared and informed throughout the season.
FAQs
Q: What is the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season?
A: NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an above normal season.
Q: How many named storms is NOAA forecasting?
A: NOAA forecasts a likely range of 17 to 24 named storms.
Q: What is the significance of La Niña conditions?
A: La Niña conditions typically favor more hurricane activity in the Atlantic because of weaker vertical wind shear and more instability across the main development region.
Q: Why is it essential to prepare for hurricane season?
A: Predictions of the season’s activity are not predictions of exactly how many storms will make landfall in a particular place. Individual storms make impacts, regardless of how active (or not) a season is. Coastal residents should do what they can to make sure they’re prepared every year.
