What You Need To Know
- Weather plays a significant role in fall foliage
- Heat and soil moisture determine foliage timing and intensity
- Stressed trees will lose leaves earlier or later than normal
Right Place at the Right Time
The first step of successful leaf-peeping is being at the right place at the right time. All other factors aside, this is the average time of the year around the U.S. that you can see peak fall colors according to Explore Fall.
Apart from the Florida peninsula, the Gulf Coast, and parts of the desert Southwest, most of the continental U.S. sees color change during fall.
Weather’s Role
The weather determines whether the fall foliage comes out early, on time or late every year, but what role does it play?
Heat and moisture are the biggest factors that influence fall foliage. The summer weather helps give an idea of when colors will pop, but the weather during September and October are the biggest influencers.
Here is how soil moisture and air temperature affect fall foliage.
(Courtesy: ExploreFall.com)
A prolonged late-spring or severe summer drought that leads to dry soils in the fall not only affects the timing, but the quality of the colors. Drought and drier soil puts a higher stress on the trees, dulling down the colors and forcing them to lose their leaves sooner.
Heavy rainfall and wet soils in the summer and fall can delay the colors’ arrival by a few days, or even weeks. The later arrival time can produce better fall colors.
Colder and below-normal temperatures bring out fall colors early, while prolonged summer heat and above normal temperatures delay the colors.
According to the USDA Forest Service, “a succession of warm, sunny days and cool, crisp but not freezing nights seems to bring about the most spectacular color displays.” In other words… typical fall weather.
2024 Outlook
Fall colors are already starting to pop across some parts of the country, most notably in the Rockies and interior New England, where there are extensive areas of moderate and low color.
For a lot of these spots, it’s right on time. When can the rest of the country expect to see color? Tree stress gives us a good idea if foliage will come out early, on time or late.
It takes those earlier factors into account – soil moisture and temperatures. Low stress areas are where the foliage is most likely to be on time.
High stress areas around Ohio, West Virginia, and the Appalachians are also under extreme to exceptional drought. That could cause those areas to lose leaves early and mute some of the vibrant colors.
Drought, along with the combination of above normal summer temperatures, are also leading to highly stressed trees in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and New Mexico.
Areas with low stress, like parts of New England and the Rockies where fall colors are already coming out, are more likely to see vibrant colors and foliage showing up right on time.
You can check on Explore Fall for a current fall foliage map and forecast updated daily.
Conclusion
When planning your fall foliage adventure, keep an eye on the weather forecast and check on the tree stress in the areas you plan to visit. By understanding the role of weather in fall foliage, you can make the most of your trip and catch the vibrant colors at their peak.
FAQs
Q: What role does weather play in fall foliage?
A: Weather plays a significant role in fall foliage, with heat and moisture being the biggest factors that influence foliage timing and intensity.
Q: How does soil moisture affect fall foliage?
A: Prolonged drought or heavy rainfall can affect the timing and quality of fall colors, with dry soil leading to duller colors and forced early leaf loss, and wet soil potentially delaying color arrival.
Q: Can I predict when the fall foliage will be at its peak?
A: Tree stress gives us an idea of whether foliage will come out early, on time, or late. Checking on soil moisture and temperature forecasts can help you plan your trip to catch the vibrant colors at their peak.
Q: Are there any areas I should avoid due to tree stress?
A: Yes, areas with extreme to exceptional drought, such as Ohio, West Virginia, and the Appalachians, may lose leaves early and have muted colors. Check on Explore Fall for current fall foliage maps and forecasts to plan your trip accordingly.
