European Forecasters Call for ‘Near-Average’ Atlantic Hurricane Season
Predictions for the Upcoming Season
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMRW) has issued a forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which suggests that it will remain “near-average” through September. The forecast does not include predictions for October through the end of November, a month that is often marked by an increase in storm activity.
Twelve Named Storms Expected
According to the ECMRW, approximately 12 named storms are expected through September. This is slightly above the average of 10 storms through September, as recorded between 1991 and 2020. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that the average number of named storms for the entire season is 14.
Five Hurricanes Anticipated
The ECMRW also projects that there will be five hurricanes through September, which is a near-average number according to the NHC. This is in line with the historical trend, as the NHC reports that five hurricanes is the average number for the entire season.
Factors Influencing the Forecast
Colorado State University Atlantic hurricane specialist Phil Klotzbach believes that two factors are influencing the forecast. First, neither La Niña nor El Niño is expected to have a significant impact on the season. La Niña conditions tend to aid in the formation of hurricanes, while El Niño conditions tend to inhibit them. Secondly, sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic, where hurricanes form, are expected to be near normal. This is in contrast to 2023 and 2024, which set records for hot water, which can fuel hurricanes.
Expert Insights
Klotzbach took to Twitter to share his thoughts on the forecast, stating: “Forecast from ECMWF calls for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season through Sept, with ensemble average of ~12 named storms, ~5 hurricanes and ACE of 90% of normal. Forecast near-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral likely primary contributors.” He also shared the tweet:
Forecast from ECMWF calls for a near-average Atlantic #hurricane season through Sept, with ensemble average of ~12 named storms, ~5 hurricanes and ACE of 90% of normal. Forecast near-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral likely primary contributors. pic.twitter.com/IgbGW2wcvc
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) March 5, 2025
Conclusion
The ECMRW’s forecast suggests that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will be near-average, with 12 named storms and five hurricanes expected through September. This is in line with historical trends, and experts believe that the absence of significant El Niño or La Niña conditions, as well as near-normal sea-surface temperatures, are key factors in the forecast.
FAQs
* What is the ECMRW’s forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season?
The ECMRW predicts a near-average season, with 12 named storms and five hurricanes expected through September.
* What are the primary factors influencing the forecast?
The absence of significant El Niño or La Niña conditions, as well as near-normal sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic, are the primary factors.
* How does this compare to historical trends?
The forecast is in line with historical trends, with the average number of named storms through September being 10, and the average number of hurricanes being five.
