HIV Infections Could Jump Over 6 Times if US Support Dropped and Not Replaced
The head of the U.N. AIDS agency has warned that the number of new HIV infections could jump more than six times by 2029 if American support for the largest AIDS program is dropped. According to UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima, this would result in millions of people dying and the emergence of more resistant strains of the disease.
HIV Infections on the Decline
In recent years, HIV infections have been falling, with just 1.3 million new cases recorded in 2023, a 60% decline since the virus peaked in 1995.
Consequences of US Funding Cuts
However, since President Donald Trump’s announcement to freeze all foreign assistance for 90 days, officials estimate that by 2029, there could be 8.7 million people newly infected with HIV, a tenfold jump in AIDS-related deaths – to 6.3 million – and an additional 3.4 million children made orphans. "We will see a surge in this disease," Byanyima said. "This will cost lives if the American government doesn’t change its mind and maintain its leadership."
Impact on Global Efforts
Byanyima pleaded with the Trump administration not to abruptly cut off funding, which she said has resulted in "panic, fear and confusion" in many of the African countries hardest hit by AIDS. In one Kenyan county, she said 550 HIV workers were immediately laid off, while thousands of others in Ethiopia were terminated, leaving health officials unable to track the epidemic.
US Funding Crucial to Global Efforts
External funding, mostly from the US, accounts for about 90% of the programs in some countries, with nearly $400 million going to countries like Uganda, Mozambique, and Tanzania.
New Prevention Tool
Byanyima also highlighted the loss of American support in efforts to combat HIV, coming at a critical time with the arrival of a "magical prevention tool" known as lenacapavir, a twice-yearly shot that was shown to offer complete protection against HIV in women, and worked nearly as well for men. Widespread use of this shot, in addition to other interventions to stop HIV, could help end the disease as a public health problem in the next five years.
Economic Sense
Byanyima questioned the economic sense of the US funding freeze, noting that foreign assistance makes up less than 1% of the overall US budget. "Why would you need to be so disruptive for that 1%?" she asked. "We appeal to the US government to review this, to understand that this is mutually beneficial."
International Aid
Byanyima plans to visit numerous European capitals to speak with global leaders, urging them to step in and fill the void left by the loss of American aid. "People are going to die because lifesaving tools have been taken away from them," she said. "I have not yet heard of any European country committing to step in, but I know they are listening and trying to see where they can come in because they care about rights, about humanity."
Conclusion
The consequences of a US funding cut would be catastrophic, with millions of people losing access to life-saving treatment and prevention services. It is crucial that the US government reconsider its decision and continue to support global efforts to combat HIV/AIDS.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the current number of new HIV infections?
1.3 million new cases were recorded in 2023, a 60% decline since the virus peaked in 1995. - What are the estimated consequences of a US funding cut?
By 2029, there could be 8.7 million people newly infected with HIV, a tenfold jump in AIDS-related deaths – to 6.3 million – and an additional 3.4 million children made orphans. - What is the current percentage of foreign assistance in the US budget?
Less than 1% of the overall US budget.
