Tropical Wave in the Caribbean: Development and Track Uncertainty
Development Probability
Conditions look favorable for a broad area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea to become a tropical depression in the next day or two. Specifically, its development probability is at a 90% within the next 48 hours.
Short-Term Forecast
In the short-term, heavy rain is expected across Jamaica as the cluster of showers and thunderstorms, referred to as invest 99L, drifts to the west with further strengthening expected. The tropical wave will push into the northwest Caribbean by the weekend.
Long-Term Forecast
Forecast models are consistent, showing the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, but a larger spread of possible solutions exists after that. Some guidance is targeting the northern Gulf and the panhandle of Florida, while others have the west coast of Florida in play. It all comes down to the strength and positioning of high pressure north of the system now, and strong jet stream expected over the Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Jet Stream Impact
A strong jet stream could be a blessing. While it would help steer the system into the eastern Gulf, the large amount of wind shear could weaken the cyclone.
Uncertainty Remains
The bottom line? Until an actual system forms, the track and intensity remains highly uncertain.
Next Steps
It will be the 18th storm of the hurricane season and will take on the name Sara. Folks with interests in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico should keep checking in with NBC6 on our website and app.
Conclusion
The development of this tropical wave is expected to occur in the next day or two, with heavy rain expected in Jamaica and the northwest Caribbean. While forecast models are consistent in the short-term, the long-term track and intensity remain uncertain due to the influence of high pressure and the jet stream.
FAQs
Q: What is the development probability of the tropical wave?
A: The development probability is at a 90% within the next 48 hours.
Q: Where is the tropical wave expected to move?
A: The system is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, with possible tracks including the northern Gulf and the panhandle of Florida, or the west coast of Florida.
Q: What is the impact of the jet stream on the system?
A: The strong jet stream could weaken the cyclone due to the large amount of wind shear, but it would also help steer the system into the eastern Gulf.
Q: When will the storm be named?
A: The storm will take on the name Sara, which will be the 18th storm of the hurricane season.
