Introduction to the Catastrophic Situation
Hurricane Melissa began rapidly intensifying after forming in the Caribbean Saturday and is likely to reach Category 4 strength or higher over the next few days in what forecasters are calling a potentially catastrophic situation. The storm, expected to cause life-threatening flooding and landslides, had already caused some deaths as it sits in the central Caribbean. At least three people have been killed in Haiti this past week, officials say, two in a landslide and one by a falling tree.
Current Forecast and Potential Impact
Long-range models continue to take Melissa on a track east of Florida, but officials stress the lack of certainty over the forecast. Even though they recommend remaining vigilant, the National Weather Service in Miami on Friday said no threat to South Florida is anticipated. In the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center is warning of extreme and prolonged amounts of rainfall that will result in numerous life-threatening flash floods, landslides and storm surge. Jamaica will likely take the brunt of Melissa’s assault, but Haiti and the Dominican Republic are also at high risk.
Details of the Storm’s Progress
By late Saturday afternoon, Melissa had reached maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, barely drifting west-north-west about 130 miles southeast of Jamaica. The National Hurricane Service advised residents of Jamaica to prepare for the worst as the storm is expected to jump to major hurricane status by Sunday morning while its center moves near or over the island during the weekend and early next week, before moving near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.
Preparations and Warnings
“Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica,” hurricane center forecasters said. “Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica … on Saturday.” A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica, while a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince. A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.
Unusual Conditions and Expected Intensification
Conditions are extremely unusual in the Caribbean, with Melissa trapped between two blocking systems. With nowhere to go for now, the storm is stationary. But as the blocking currents shift, Melissa will begin to move slowly and conditions will quickly allow the storm to strengthen. “The exceptionally warm waters of the Caribbean will provide extra energy for Melissa to strengthen,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “This storm is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane once it enters an area with less disruptive wind shear south of Jamaica.”
Impact on Local Residents
Marcus Thompson, who lives in Kingston, said he covered his windows and stocked up on water and canned food. “We’ve been through storms before, but it’s better to be prepared early this time,” he said. Others checked their roofs, cleaned gutters and charged electrical devices. “I moved my car to higher ground and gathered all essential documents just in case,” said Alton Williams, who lives in Mandeville. In eastern Kingston, Veronica James said she was following updates and keeping her children informed. “If officials decide evacuation is necessary, we have a small bag ready with medicine and important papers,” she said.
Rainfall and Storm Surge Predictions
Up to 25 inches of rain is forecast for some southern parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti as well as Jamaica through Tuesday, with the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti possibly seeing as much as 35 inches. Southeast Cuba could see up to 12 inches in some areas. The storm has damaged nearly 200 homes in the Dominican Republic and knocked out water supply systems, affecting more than half a million customers. It also downed trees and traffic lights and unleashed a couple of small landslides.
Humanitarian Concerns
The U.N. said it has prepared more than 100 emergency shelters in Haiti’s southern region. Wilgar Joseph said he and his family were leaving their home in Les Cayes out of safety concerns because it has a zinc roof. “I’ll stay with a friend whose home is on higher ground so I can protect myself in case it gets out of control,” he said. Meanwhile, thousands of people living in makeshift shelters across Port-au-Prince after gangs forced them to flee their homes worried about the storm. “The message on the radio is to protect ourselves,” said Dina Georges. “How can I protect myself if I don’t have a home? I’m on the streets. And on top of that, I have two kids to protect.”
Forecast Models and Potential Paths
Melissa is expected to make a gradual turn to the north, then northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The storm’s center will pass near or over Jamaica early in the week and could be near Cuba by the middle of week, the hurricane center said. Some models have the storm moving north and east, out into the Atlantic, while others suggest it could meander farther west, toward Central America, before veering north. The farther west the storm travels, the more likelihood it has of affecting Florida. The uncertainty about the forecast leaves the state open to some risk, said DaSilva. “A dip in the jet stream over the Southeast U.S. and strong upper-level winds are expected next week, which should prevent movement toward the Gulf Coast states,” DaSilva said. “The risk of direct impacts on the U.S. is low at this time, but it cannot be ruled out.”
Conclusion
The situation with Hurricane Melissa is potentially catastrophic, with the storm expected to bring life-threatening flooding, landslides, and storm surge to the Caribbean. Residents are advised to prepare for the worst and follow updates from local authorities. The uncertainty of the forecast means that the risk to Florida and other parts of the U.S. cannot be ruled out, and everyone in the potential path of the storm should remain vigilant.
FAQs
- Q: What is the current status of Hurricane Melissa?
A: Hurricane Melissa is currently intensifying in the Caribbean and is expected to reach Category 4 strength or higher over the next few days. - Q: Which areas are at risk from the storm?
A: Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic are at high risk from the storm, with potential impacts also possible in Florida and other parts of the U.S. - Q: What precautions should residents take?
A: Residents should prepare for the worst by covering windows, stocking up on water and canned food, and following updates from local authorities. - Q: How much rain is expected from the storm?
A: Up to 25 inches of rain is forecast for some areas, with the potential for much higher amounts in some locations. - Q: What is the potential for the storm to affect the U.S.?
A: The uncertainty of the forecast means that the risk to the U.S. cannot be ruled out, but the current forecast suggests that the risk of direct impacts is low.
