Introduction to Tropical Storm Melissa
Tropical Storm Melissa has formed in the central Caribbean, and forecasters say South Florida should be keeping an eye on the long-range tracking models. It’s possible a hurricane may develop this week. The system, which as of Tuesday morning was about 300 miles south of Haiti and moving west at 14 mph, had maximum sustained wind speeds of 50 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Current Status and Watches
A hurricane watch has been issued for the southern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince. The government of Jamaica has issued a tropical storm watch for the island. Steering currents are predicted to slow in the next 12 hours and allow for rapid organization. What happens at that point remains uncertain, forecasters say.
Potential Impacts and Forecast
AccuWeather on Tuesday said “the U.S. concern for impacts will be in the Florida Peninsula, especially the lower portion of the Peninsula and the Keys.” AccuWeather also predicted that as the storm meanders in the Caribbean it could bring 12 to 30 inches of rain to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba. The so-called “spaghetti models,” which are computers that forecast the long-range track of a storm, show Tropical Storm Melissa turning sharply to the north and northeast while it is south of Cuba. Where that turn happens will determine the threat level to Florida.
Possible Scenarios for Florida
If the storm turns in the central Caribbean, it will likely be a significant threat to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, or other islands — but keep Florida out of its direct path. A later turn closer to the coast of Central America would put the southern half of Florida under threat. That scenario has the system slowing significantly, and remains a week and a half away. Things could change drastically before then, Fox Weather hurricane expert Bryan Norcross wrote on his blog, Hurricane Intel.
Computer Models and Predictions
Forecast computer tracks, known as "spaghetti models," show Tropical Storm or Hurricane Melissa making a turn north in the southern Caribbean. “As far ahead as we can reasonably forecast — about 10 days — there is no sign of a threat to the mainland U.S.,” Norcross wrote Monday. “But residents of Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands should plan to stay informed this week until we see what happens midweek. If the system quickly develops, its move north could occur almost immediately.” The long-range computer models show a wide margin of error in the storm’s future tracks. A steering force in the models is the subtropical jet stream, which has dipped into the Gulf.
Strength and Category Predictions
Computer models are split on how strong the storm will get. Most show Melissa strengthening into a hurricane by late in the week. Some models predict it could even become a major hurricane — Category 3 or higher. “The storm would have to get to Jamaica or Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula to be of concern to Florida as we see it now,” DaSilva said. “If the system remains weak and steers westward, it may continue on a path into Central America with no additional U.S. threat.”
Seasonal Context
Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Four hurricanes have formed so far. Of the 13 named Atlantic storms, only Tropical Storm Chantal has made a U.S. landfall. Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
Conclusion
Tropical Storm Melissa is a developing storm in the Caribbean that has the potential to become a hurricane. Its path and strength are still uncertain, but it is crucial for residents in the Caribbean and South Florida to stay informed about the latest developments. The storm’s impact could vary significantly depending on its track and intensity, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring and updates from reliable weather forecasting services.
FAQs
- Q: Where is Tropical Storm Melissa currently located?
A: As of the latest update, Tropical Storm Melissa is located about 300 miles south of Haiti, moving west at 14 mph. - Q: What are the predicted wind speeds of Tropical Storm Melissa?
A: The storm currently has maximum sustained wind speeds of 50 mph, with the potential to strengthen into a hurricane. - Q: Are there any watches or warnings issued for the storm?
A: Yes, a hurricane watch has been issued for the southern peninsula of Haiti, and a tropical storm watch has been issued for Jamaica. - Q: How might the storm affect Florida?
A: The impact on Florida depends on the storm’s track. If it turns north in the central Caribbean, Florida might not be directly affected. However, if it turns closer to Central America, the southern half of Florida could be under threat. - Q: What is the predicted rainfall amount from the storm?
A: AccuWeather predicts that the storm could bring 12 to 30 inches of rain to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba.
