Introduction to the System
The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring a system that is expected to develop into a tropical storm as it approaches the northeast Caribbean. As of 8 a.m. Tuesday, the system has a 90% chance of developing in the next two days and could become a tropical depression as early as Tuesday.
Current Status and Predictions
“It is becoming likely that this will organize into a tropical storm this week,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. “While many options remain possible with its future track, the most likely track appears to turn the future storm to the north as it passes by the Caribbean islands. This would keep it east of the U.S. mainland.” Some computer models indicate the system “will track over or near the islands east of Puerto Rico,” Fox Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross wrote in his Hurricane Intel blog.
Potential Impact
The system could once again create hazardous rip currents and beach conditions from Florida up the U.S. East Coast, according to AccuWeather, similar to the paths recently taken by Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda. By the end of September, the U.S. usually has at least one hurricane landfall, if not several. Not so in 2025. Four hurricanes have formed so far in the Atlantic season, and none has hit the U.S.
Other Weather Systems
NHC forecasters also are monitoring a trough of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean. It is expected to move across Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula near the southwestern Gulf. It has a 10% chance of development over the next two to seven days. Meanwhile, a coastal flood advisory is in effect for Florida’s Atlantic coast through 8 p.m. Wednesday due to king tides, according to the National Weather Service in Miami. Mild to moderate flooding is expected in South Florida around high tides, forecasters said.
The threat risk for coastal flooding in South Florida for Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2025 . (NWS/Courtesy)
Seasonal Context
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30. Originally Published: October 3, 2025 at 8:48 AM EDT
Conclusion
The system developing in the northeast Caribbean has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm, potentially impacting the Caribbean islands and the U.S. East Coast with hazardous rip currents and beach conditions. It is essential to monitor the system’s progress and follow updates from the National Hurricane Center.
FAQs
Q: What is the current status of the system in the northeast Caribbean?
A: The system has a 90% chance of developing in the next two days and could become a tropical depression as early as Tuesday.
Q: What is the predicted track of the system?
A: The most likely track appears to turn the future storm to the north as it passes by the Caribbean islands, keeping it east of the U.S. mainland.
Q: Are there any other weather systems being monitored?
A: Yes, a trough of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean is being monitored, with a 10% chance of development over the next two to seven days.
Q: What is the threat of coastal flooding in South Florida?
A: Mild to moderate flooding is expected in South Florida around high tides due to king tides.
