Introduction to Tropical Threats
The Atlantic Ocean is currently being watched by forecasters due to the presence of two tropical rainstorms that could potentially develop into tropical depressions or storms. These systems are located east of the Caribbean and are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. As of Tuesday morning, they have been given a moderate to high chance of developing into tropical depressions or storms in the next seven days.
Current Tropical Systems
The two tropical rainstorms currently being watched by the National Hurricane Center are east of the Caribbean. As of Tuesday morning, they are being given a moderate to high chance of developing into tropical depressions or storms in the next seven days. The one most likely to form is farther east with an 80% chance of developing. If it does form into a tropical system, it is likely to turn north without threatening the U.S.
“Many forecasts show it becoming a strong hurricane that, more or less, follows Gabrielle in the general direction of Bermuda,” Fox Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross wrote on his blog, Hurricane Intel.
Second Tropical Wave
A second wave that’s closer to the Caribbean has a lower chance of developing in the next week — 50% as of Tuesday morning — but will be farther west than any other tropical system so far this season. “This was the one we were concerned about because it was forecast to move farther west and perhaps turn north in a threatening way,” Norcross said. But he added that the long-range forecast is murky. “There is no consensus in the various computer forecast models on what’s going to happen, but many options include the system organizing,” he said. “The possibilities range from a significant threat to the Southeast to little if any development.”
Forecast Models
Spaghetti models — the combined forecast paths generated by the various storm modeling computers — show the closer system potentially tracking near the mid-Atlantic coast from the Carolinas to Virginia. The National Hurricane Center is watching two areas north and east of the Caribbean for possible formation of tropical depressions, storms or even hurricanes. (NHC/courtesy) The two tropical waves will be in close proximity to each other, and the potential for them to interact is complicating the forecast. “For now, we just have to watch and be aware that something annoying could develop with this system around the weekend,” Norcross said.
Hurricane Gabrielle
Meanwhile, Hurricane Gabrielle, which quickly ramped up to a major Category 4 hurricane, was churning up dangerous surf and swells as it passed Bermuda and tracked east through the open Atlantic. As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, Gabrielle was 390 miles east-northeast of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and was moving east-northeast at 20 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and its tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. In addition to Bermuda, swells from the hurricane are affecting the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, according to the latest from the Hurricane Center. The Azores are under a hurricane watch.
Seasonal Forecast
So far in 2025, there have been seven named storms. AccuWeather is now predicting 13 to 16 named storms and six to nine hurricanes, according to an update. Its previous forecast, issued in March, predicted 13 to 18 named storms and seven to 10 hurricanes. The estimated range of storms with direct impacts to the U.S. remains the same, however, at three to six. AccuWeather is still forecasting three to five major hurricanes this season, which means Category 3 or above.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Atlantic Ocean is being closely watched by forecasters due to the presence of two tropical rainstorms that could potentially develop into tropical depressions or storms. These systems have the potential to impact the Caribbean and approach the U.S. East Coast. It is essential to stay informed and monitor the latest forecast updates to prepare for any potential threats.
FAQs
Q: What are the chances of the two tropical rainstorms developing into tropical depressions or storms?
A: The one most likely to form has an 80% chance of developing, while the second wave has a 50% chance of developing in the next week.
Q: Where are the two tropical rainstorms located?
A: They are located east of the Caribbean.
Q: What is the current status of Hurricane Gabrielle?
A: Hurricane Gabrielle is a Category 4 hurricane that is currently churning up dangerous surf and swells as it passes Bermuda and tracks east through the open Atlantic.
Q: How many named storms have occurred so far in 2025?
A: There have been seven named storms so far in 2025.
Q: What is the predicted range of storms with direct impacts to the U.S.?
A: The estimated range of storms with direct impacts to the U.S. remains the same, at three to six.
