Election Eve Polls Show Slight Shift in Favor of Kamala Harris in Key Battleground States
Polls Released by Florida Atlantic University
Election Eve polls in the three northern battleground states that could decide the presidential election found slight movement toward Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris still is effectively tied with former President Donald Trump.
Poll Findings
The three polls, released Monday by Florida Atlantic University, found Harris ever-so-slightly ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
- Pennsylvania: Harris leads Trump 49% to 47% among likely voters.
- Wisconsin: Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% among likely Wisconsin voters.
- Michigan: Harris leads Trump 49% to 47% among likely voters in Michigan.
Analysis
While the leads are small, and within the polling margin of error, which means either candidate could be ahead or tied, Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist, noted, "While we are seeing some movement toward Vice President Harris in our final battleground polls, the race is still very close. A movement of a few points in either direction in the last day could be the difference."
Demographics
The polls found:
- Harris 6 points ahead of Trump among women in Pennsylvania.
- Harris 11 points ahead of Trump among women in Wisconsin.
- Harris 5 percentage points ahead of Trump among women in Michigan.
- Trump leads Harris by 2 points among men in Pennsylvania.
- Trump leads Harris by 10 points among men in Wisconsin.
- Trump leads Harris by 1 point among men in Michigan.
Methodology
The polls of 798 registered voters in Wisconsin, 733 in Michigan, and 726 in Pennsylvania were conducted October 25 to November 2 for FAU by Mainstreet Research. The surveys used an online panel and text messaging to reach voters with a link to complete the survey. Each survey has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 4 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Conclusion
The polls indicate a slight shift in favor of Kamala Harris in the three battleground states, but the race remains extremely close. The outcome will depend on how the remaining voters cast their ballots in the next 24 hours.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What are the poll findings in each state?
A: Harris leads Trump 49% to 47% in Pennsylvania, 49% to 48% in Wisconsin, and 49% to 47% in Michigan.
Q: What is the margin of error for the polls?
A: The margin of error for the full survey is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Q: What methodology did the polls use?
A: The polls used an online panel and text messaging to reach voters with a link to complete the survey.
