Introduction to Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to become a major Category 3 hurricane this weekend as it approaches the Caribbean, but long-range models are increasingly confident that the storm will turn north before the U.S. East Coast.
Still, because some outlier forecast models show the storm tracking farther south and west, everyone along the U.S. coast, from Florida to New England, should continue to monitor the storm’s track, the National Hurricane Center said.
Forecast Path and Potential Impacts
Erin’s forecast path will take it close to some islands in the Caribbean before arcing to the northwest, beginning Thursday night.
“Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known,” the Hurricane Center said.
The Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty was just north of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, according to the center’s 5 p.m. Wednesday update. Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive at the island as early as 8 p.m. Saturday. High winds could spur power outages.
Potential Life-Threatening Conditions
Potentially life-threatening swells from Erin will begin affecting the eastern Caribbean, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend, the Hurricane Center said. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Erin was 1,200 miles east of the Caribbean, moving west at 17 mph with sustained winds of 50 mph. Erin is encountering dry air and mild sea-surface temperatures, which will “keep the small vortex in check,” the Hurricane Center said.
Strengthening and Hurricane Classification
But warmer waters will eventually fuel strengthening, and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday and a major hurricane — Category 3 with sustained winds of at least 115 mph — by late Saturday, just north of Puerto Rico.
Forecasters also said there is “even greater uncertainty” regarding impacts to the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week.
Tropical Storm Erin’s track as of 5 p.m., Wednesday, August 13, 2025. (Courtesy NHC)
Impacts on Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast
“Bermuda could be soaked with 2 to 4 inches of rain and wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph when Erin passes by the island next week,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
Erin would be the first Atlantic hurricane of the season and is the fourth tropical storm.
The average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11.
A subset of scenarios show a threat to the east coast, but even without a direct strike, the coast still may feel marine effects.
“Erin will churn up rough surf and dangerous rip currents along the Atlantic coastline from Florida all the way north to Maine starting this weekend into next week,” DaSilva said Tuesday.
“Beach erosion is possible in some areas. A major hurricane in the open Atlantic can produce very rough surf that will impact beaches hundreds of miles away. Hazardous beach conditions are likely across parts of the Caribbean, Bahamas and Bermuda.”
Other Systems in the Atlantic Basin
The Atlantic Basin now contains two systems, Tropical Storm Erin in the Atlantic, and a disturbance in the western Gulf near Honduras and Nicaragua that has only a 10% chance of developing. (NHC)
A new system of disorganized showers and thunderstorms emerged Tuesday night in the western Gulf near Honduras and Nicaragua.
It is expected to move west-northwest across the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday.
It has a 10% chance of developing in the next seven days, the hurricane center said.
Conclusion
Tropical Storm Erin is a significant weather event that requires close monitoring, especially for those in the Caribbean and along the U.S. East Coast. While the storm is forecast to turn north before reaching the U.S., its impacts could still be felt through rough surf and rip currents. It is essential to stay informed and follow the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center.
FAQs
Q: What is the current forecast for Tropical Storm Erin?
A: Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to become a major Category 3 hurricane this weekend as it approaches the Caribbean, but long-range models are increasingly confident that the storm will turn north before the U.S. East Coast.
Q: Which areas could be affected by Tropical Storm Erin?
A: The northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico could experience impacts from Erin over the weekend, and Bermuda may be affected next week.
Q: What are the potential life-threatening conditions associated with Tropical Storm Erin?
A: Potentially life-threatening swells from Erin will begin affecting the eastern Caribbean, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Q: Is there a chance that Tropical Storm Erin could affect the U.S. East Coast?
A: While the storm is forecast to turn north before reaching the U.S., a subset of scenarios shows a threat to the east coast, and even without a direct strike, the coast may still feel marine effects.
Q: What is the average date for the first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin?
A: The average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11.
Originally Published: August 13, 2025 at 7:10 AM EDT
