Invest 97-L: Update and Impacts on South Florida
Situation Overview
All eyes remain on Invest 97-L in the Southwest Caribbean, with an 80% chance of it becoming a depression.
Naming the Storm
The name "Patty" was taken by a subtropical storm way out in the ocean near the Azores, so the next name on the list is now Rafael.
Model Forecasts
Our two big models, EURO and GFS, are actually quite similar, but enough apart for slightly different "possible" impacts here in South Florida.
EURO Model Forecast
The EURO is now showing development, but on the lower end. It also keeps the biggest wind and rain impacts to our west, which would mean The Keys may not be able to escape the rain and possibly some wind, but it would be much lower impact for Miami and Fort Lauderdale, maybe just some enhanced midweek rain.
GFS Model Forecast
The GFS has always been more aggressive with development as early as the next couple of days over Jamaica and Cuba. The GFS has a better chance for Rafael, as the storm would be a little bit stronger with this solution and maybe a bit closer to South Florida, which would dramatically increase our rain chances area-wide and would also likely increase our wind threats for The Keys and maybe even Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
Early Call for Impacts
The early call is for enhanced rain Tuesday through Thursday, but how much depends on if the system is a depression, a tropical storm, or just a lot of rain, and also how closely it gets to Key West as it moves into the Gulf.
Conclusion
It’s still early, but the situation is being closely monitored, and residents are advised to stay informed about the latest developments.
FAQs
Q: What is the current chance of Invest 97-L becoming a depression?
A: 80%
Q: Why was the name "Patty" taken?
A: The name "Patty" was taken by a subtropical storm way out in the ocean near the Azores, so the next name on the list is now Rafael.
Q: What are the two main models showing for the storm’s path?
A: The EURO and GFS models are showing different possible paths, with the EURO predicting a lower-impact storm and the GFS predicting a stronger storm with a greater impact on South Florida.
Q: What are the potential impacts on South Florida?
A: The potential impacts include enhanced rain and wind from Tuesday to Thursday, with the exact amounts depending on the storm’s strength and proximity to the region.
