Tropical Wave Approaches South Florida: Enhanced Rain Chances Expected
Latest Updates and Developments
The National Hurricane Center has given the weak tropical wave crossing Puerto Rico an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days as it approaches the waters around Florida.
Model Agreements and Disagreements
On Wednesday, models were not in complete agreement, but since then, there has been some movement, showing early signs of consensus. The GFS and EURO models have shifted towards a western solution, which is a more impactful scenario for South Florida. The eastern solution, favored by the EURO, would keep the system offshore, resulting in lower-impact conditions for the region.
Impact on South Florida
Regardless of the system’s development, enhanced rain is expected to be the biggest impact for South Florida. Sunday looks like the bull’s eye, but the highest rain chances will be toward Key West. The moisture could arrive as early as Saturday or be a Sunday-Monday rain event.
Scenario 3: The System Tracks South of South Florida
There is a third scenario: the system could track so far south of South Florida that we see slightly higher rain chances but nothing more than that.
Conclusion
While there are still many uncertainties, one thing is clear: enhanced rain is expected to hit South Florida this weekend, with Sunday looking like the peak day. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as more information becomes available.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the current chance of the tropical wave developing into a tropical depression?
A: The National Hurricane Center has given the wave an 80% chance of developing over the next seven days.
Q: What are the different scenarios for the tropical wave’s impact on South Florida?
A: There are three scenarios: the system developing into a tropical depression and affecting the region, the system tracking offshore and bringing lower-impact conditions, and the system tracking south of the region and bringing slightly higher rain chances.
Q: When can I expect the enhanced rain to hit South Florida?
A: The highest rain chances are expected on Sunday, but the moisture could arrive as early as Saturday or be a Sunday-Monday rain event.
Q: Which counties were included in the state of emergency issued by Gov. Ron DeSantis?
A: Monroe, Collier, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, and many more counties were included in the state of emergency. Miami-Dade and Broward were not included in the list.
