Odds Increase for Potential Tropical System

Introduction to the Storm

Odds for a potential tropical system that is producing heavy rain and thunderstorms off Florida’s east coast have increased again as of Monday night. The low-pressure area is forecast to move west across Florida in the next day or so and then move into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecast and Expected Rainfall

Rainfall of up to 5 inches is expected across South Florida through Wednesday, with “worst case scenario” of 5 to 7 inches in a few areas, the National Weather Service said. A man walks through a flooded street in the Melrose Manors neighborhood in Fort Lauderdale in Monday, July 14, 2025. (Carline Jean/South Florida Sun Sentinel) The heaviest rainfall was expected Monday evening. The rain will increase the potential for flooding in “flood prone or low-lying areas along the East Coast metro and areas with poor drainage,” the weather service advisory stated.

Potential for Tropical Storm Development

If it were to become a named storm, it would be Tropical Storm Dexter. It has a 40% chance to develop in the next seven days and a 30% chance in the next two days, the hurricane center said as of 8 p.m. Regardless of development, parts of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast could see some flash flooding in the middle or later part of the week.

High-End Rainfall Estimates

High-end rainfall estimates for South Florida through Thursday morning. (NWS) The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had initially forecast an expected 13 to 19 named storms for the year, of which 6-10 would grow into hurricanes. Three to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

Hurricane Season Outlook

Researchers out of Colorado State University last week updated their forecast saying they expect the season to be slightly less active than what they had predicted earlier this year. Hurricane season runs June 1-Nov. 30.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the odds for a potential tropical system off Florida’s east coast have increased, with a significant chance of development into a named storm. Residents in the affected areas should be prepared for heavy rainfall and potential flooding. It is essential to stay informed and follow the latest forecasts and advisories from the National Hurricane Center and local weather services.

FAQs

What is the potential tropical system’s name if it develops?

If the system develops into a named storm, it would be named Tropical Storm Dexter.

What are the expected rainfall amounts in South Florida?

Rainfall of up to 5 inches is expected across South Florida through Wednesday, with a worst-case scenario of 5 to 7 inches in a few areas.

What are the chances of the system developing into a tropical storm?

The system has a 40% chance to develop in the next seven days and a 30% chance in the next two days.

Originally Published

Originally Published: July 14, 2025 at 8:37 AM EDT