November and the End of the Hurricane Season in Sight
As Floridians, we can finally breathe a sigh of relief as the end of the hurricane season approaches. While a November storm can never be entirely ruled out, the chances of being struck by a hurricane decrease rapidly as we head towards Thanksgiving.
Above-Average 2024 Hurricane Season
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually active, with 15 named storms and 10 hurricanes, exceeding the average of 7 hurricanes per season. Four of these hurricanes have reached major hurricane intensity, exceeding the historical average of 3. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the year is about 26% above normal, indicating a more intense and active season.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Outlook
NOAA’s mid-season updated outlook predicted 17 to 25 tropical storms and 8 to 13 hurricanes, with 4-7 reaching major hurricane Category 3, 4, or 5 status. While we have reached or surpassed the lower end of these ranges, it’s clear that the season has outperformed expectations.
Current Weather Outlook
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring three areas of concern in the Atlantic, including a system near the Azores, a developing low-pressure system near Puerto Rico, and a disturbance in the Caribbean north of Panama. While there is a medium chance of a tropical depression forming in the latter area, it’s expected to move west or northwest towards Central America or the Gulf of Mexico.
Sea Surface Temperatures and Wind Shear
Fortunately, sea surface temperatures are cooling quickly in the Gulf of Mexico, and cold fronts are arriving from the continent, creating wind shear that is hostile to tropical storms and hurricanes. This suggests that the chances of a major hurricane impacting the Gulf Coast are decreasing.
Conclusion
While the 2024 hurricane season has been unusually active, it’s clear that the end is in sight. With the chance of a major hurricane impacting the Gulf Coast decreasing, we can finally begin to relax and focus on the holiday season ahead.
FAQs
Q: What is the current status of the 2024 hurricane season?
A: The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been above average, with 15 named storms and 10 hurricanes, exceeding the average of 7 hurricanes per season.
Q: What is the outlook for the remainder of the season?
A: While it’s difficult to predict with certainty, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring three areas of concern, and there is a medium chance of a tropical depression forming in the Caribbean. However, the chances of a major hurricane impacting the Gulf Coast are decreasing due to cooling sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear.
Q: What does the end of the season mean for Floridians?
A: The end of the season means that Floridians can finally breathe a sigh of relief, as the chance of being struck by a hurricane decreases rapidly. We can begin to focus on the holiday season ahead and put the stress of hurricane season behind us.
