Introduction to the Weather Forecast
A tropical system could take shape over Florida over the next several days, forecasters said Monday afternoon. South Florida’s July Fourth weekend will likely have “plentiful rainfall” regardless of whether the tropical system forms or not.
The week will see between a 30% and 60% chance of rain most days. Those odds will rise to 70% on Saturday.
Rainfall and Flooding
“The timing is still very uncertain, but towards the end of the week and into the weekend are the biggest (rain days) we’re looking at,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Jennifer Simmons.
There also will be a high potential for flooding, according to the National Weather Service’s Miami office.
Tropical System Development
The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of low pressure that has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next seven days. That system could bring heavy rain and flooding to a wide swath of Florida later in the week — and could disrupt July Fourth plans across the state.
The forecast area for the system spreads from just below the Panhandle into South Florida, the center’s weather outlook map shows.
Potential Impacts
“If a system does develop, it could potentially help enhance the aforementioned chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region, and elevate the potential for severe and flooding impacts,” the weather service said.
“Deep moisture” produced by the system could last into next weekend, according to an advisory issued by the hurricane center.
Moisture will be coming from two directions, Simmons said. A southerly flow will bring moisture from the Caribbean. “Regardless of whether this system turns into a tropical event or not, we’re going to see an increase in moisture, which could lead to precipitation,” said Simmons. Flooding rainfall is also a potential risk, she said.
Other Tropical Activity
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Barry dissipated over Mexico, and Tropical Storm Flossie has formed off southern Mexico’s Pacific coast. Flossie is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday morning and travel northwest off Mexico’s coast.
Flossie is expected to weaken into a tropical storm by Thursday morning before nearly the Baja Peninsula.
The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Andrea, formed June 24 and was no threat to land.
Hurricane Season Outlook
Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast for 2025 estimates 17 named storms, with nine of them becoming hurricanes.
The next named storm to form in the Atlantic basin would be Chantal.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the upcoming July Fourth weekend is expected to be wet, with a high chance of rainfall and potential flooding. The development of a tropical system over Florida could further exacerbate the situation, leading to severe and flooding impacts. It is essential to stay informed about the latest weather forecast and take necessary precautions to ensure a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend.
FAQs
Q: What is the chance of rain over the July Fourth weekend?
A: The chance of rain is between 30% and 60% most days, rising to 70% on Saturday.
Q: Is there a potential for flooding?
A: Yes, there is a high potential for flooding, according to the National Weather Service’s Miami office.
Q: What is the status of the tropical system?
A: The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of low pressure with a 20% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next seven days.
Q: How long will the hurricane season last?
A: Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
