Introduction to the 2025 Hurricane Season
Another potentially dangerous hurricane season officially begins Sunday and with forecasters calling for an “above-average” number of storms, Floridians should have their initial preparations in place soon.
We can expect an above-average season over the next six months due to many factors, including hot Atlantic ocean temperatures.
It’ll be the latest busy season: Last year, Hurricane Helene became the most deadly U.S. hurricane since Katrina, and Hurricane Milton spawned some 43 tornadoes across the state.
Floridians must stay vigilant: Our 8,000-mile-plus coast makes us a big target, and the storm-surge death rate is particularly high here. This year, the National Hurricane Center is rolling out new forecast tools to help the public prepare.
How Many Hurricanes Will 2025 Bring?
This hurricane season is expected to bring more named storms as well as more hurricanes and major hurricanes. As for the odds, there’s a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is calling for 13 to 19 named storms, with sustained winds of 39 mph or more.
Colorado State University predicted 17 named storms in its annual spring hurricane outlook. Last year had 18.
The average from 1991 to 2020 was 14.
Six to 10 of those named storms likely will become hurricanes, with maximum sustained surface winds of 74 mph or greater, NOAA said.
Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, speaks during a storm-preparedness meeting in Hallandale Beach on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. Since the 1990s, we’ve been in a “high-activity era” for hurricanes, he said. (Joe Cavaretta/South Florida Sun Sentinel)
Last year had 11 hurricanes (the average year has seven), five of which made landfall in the continental U.S., resulting in 297 deaths.
NOAA expects three to five major hurricanes, meaning they’ll be Category 3 or above with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
CSU hurricane researchers predicted that the 2025 hurricane season will be about 25% more active than the average season.
Last season’s hurricane season was about 30% more active than the average season.
Forces and Factors
Graham said that three factors inform the forecast: Warm sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin, a lack of wind shear over the region, and a forecast for strong African monsoons, which can roll off the continent and fuel tropical storms once over the Atlantic.
“Everything is in place for an above-average season,” Graham said.
The heat behind the forecast: Above-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are primary factors for this year’s storm season, according to researchers at Colorado State University.
Matt Rosencrans, of the National Hurricane Center, said that sea-surface temperatures right now are about as warm as they usually are in late June. But last year at this time they were as warm as they normally would be in August.
Hotter-than-normal, sea-surface temperatures work in two ways, according to the researchers. First, they generally fuel hurricane formation.
Secondly, when spring sea-surface temperatures are high in the eastern Atlantic, as they are now, it tends to mean weaker trade winds across the Atlantic.
Flat, calm water heats up faster — above-average water temperatures will likely continue for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season.
“Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation,” the report said.
La Niña and El Niño impacts: NOAA and CSU forecasters also point to a lack of El Niño as being conducive to storms. El Niños usually ramp
