States and Cities Fear Disasters Full of Unknowns Amid Federal Cuts

Introduction to the Problem

States and cities along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are heading into hurricane season with an extraordinary level of uncertainty, unable to gauge how significant cuts at vital federal agencies will affect weather forecasts, emergency response, and long-term recovery. They are bracing for the likelihood that fewer meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will lead to less accurate forecasts, and that the loss of experienced managers at the Federal Emergency Management Agency will lead to less coordination and more inaction.

Impact on Emergency Response

Governors and mayors are also anticipating less financial aid, as the Trump administration shifts the burden of response and recovery away from the federal government. Exactly who will pay for what moving forward is a gaping question as disasters become bigger and costlier. “There’s no plan in writing for how FEMA intends to respond during this disaster season,” said Trina Sheets, the executive director of the National Emergency Management Association, which represents state emergency managers. “Things seem to be changing on a daily basis. But there’s no road map for states to follow or to be able to plan for.”

Cuts to FEMA and NOAA

FEMA has lost about a quarter of its full-time staff, including one-fifth of the coordinating officers who manage responses to large-scale disasters, according to a former senior official. Many of those employees made their own decision to leave. NOAA has lost about one-fifth of its staff, including hundreds of people from the National Weather Service. The thought of a shrunken FEMA — or eliminating the agency altogether, which President Donald Trump has raised — is unnerving coastal residents like Trasi Sharp, of Sanibel Island, Florida. Her business, Over Easy Cafe, was destroyed by Hurricane Ian in 2022.

Concerns from Experts and Residents

“It’s just such a confusing time,” Sharp added. “We’re all on pins and needles this season.” Moskowitz, an expert in disaster management, warns FEMA ‘is going to fail’ during hurricane season. Kristi Noem, the Department of Homeland Security secretary, whose department includes FEMA, said Tuesday that the agency was prepared for hurricane season, which extends from June through November. Some of the other federal agencies involved in disaster response agreed, in responses to emailed questions. But the Army Corps of Engineers, which is often called on to help communities after storms, acknowledged that it did not know “the full impact that staff departures or other reductions will have.”

Uncertainty Beyond Hurricanes

The unknowns extend beyond hurricanes. States and cities in the West, going into peak wildfire season, say they are concerned about how much they will be able to lean on the federal government after the Trump administration reduced the ranks of U.S. Forest Service personnel who support front-line firefighters. The domino effect may be that more local firefighters are deployed to help other jurisdictions fight wildfires sooner and for longer — leaving fewer available back at home, Chief Leonard Johnson of the McLane Black Lake Fire Department near Olympia, Washington, said in a news conference this month.

Preparing for the Worst

Several state officials in the West said all the uncertainty affirmed their decision to devote more resources to their own firefighting efforts in recent years. “We have made the effort to try to take our fate back,” said Stan Hilkey, executive director of the Colorado Department of Public Safety. There is no historical comparison, since no other administration has made such deep cuts to FEMA or other disaster-response agencies. In the recent past, the nightmare scenario came in 2017, when FEMA struggled to respond to three devastating hurricanes in quick succession — Harvey, Irma and Maria — as well as widespread wildfires in California. The agency came close to running out of staff to deploy.

Potential Consequences

At the start of that year’s hurricane season, FEMA had 6,588 trained staff members available to deploy to disasters, according to agency records. As of Wednesday, it had 1,952. States with robust budgets and considerable experience with disasters, such as Texas and Florida, may be better suited to working with less federal help than less affluent, more rural states that have fewer funds to tap into. Climate change has not only made extreme weather more frequent and deadlier, but also more likely to hit where it rarely did before.

Need for Improvement and Concerns

Even some who believe that FEMA needs an overhaul have acknowledged that the speed and volume of the changes could make this disaster season bumpy. “We’re going to be massively transforming the response system while that response system has to be effectively responding,” Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, a Republican, said Tuesday at the inaugural meeting of a Trump-appointed council that will make recommendations on FEMA’s future. Few question the need for improvements to the nation’s disjointed disaster response system, especially when it comes to long-term recovery.

Personal Experiences and Fears

Karen Small, 54, whose elevated home on Sanibel Island suffered damage during Hurricane Ian, said, “They need to be revamped.” After her property insurance payout fell short, Small turned to FEMA to help cover some of her repairs. Agency officials insisted on meeting in person four times to review her application, while she was staying more than three hours away. In the end, she received $700, the standard amount that FEMA offers disaster victims. “That $700 covered my gas just to meet them,” she said. “It was almost an insult.”

Conclusion

The uncertainty and fear among states, cities, and residents as hurricane season approaches are palpable. The cuts to FEMA and NOAA, along with the potential changes to the disaster response system, have left many wondering how they will fare in the face of natural disasters. As the nation heads into a period of increased risk, it is crucial that the federal government provides clear guidance and support to those who need it most.

FAQs

1. What are the concerns about the upcoming hurricane season?
   The concerns include the potential for less accurate weather forecasts due to cuts at NOAA, less coordination and response from FEMA due to staffing cuts, and less financial aid from the federal government.

2. How have the cuts to FEMA affected its ability to respond to disasters?
   FEMA has lost about a quarter of its full-time staff, including one-fifth of the coordinating officers who manage responses to large-scale disasters. This reduction in staff could lead to less effective response and recovery efforts.

3. What are the potential consequences of the changes to the disaster response system?
   The potential consequences include more frequent and severe disasters, less effective response and recovery efforts, and a greater burden on states and cities to respond to disasters on their own.

4. How can states and cities prepare for the upcoming hurricane season?
   States and cities can prepare by devoting more resources to their own emergency management efforts, building relationships with other states and cities to share resources and expertise, and advocating for clear guidance and support from the federal government.

5. What can individuals do to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season?
   Individuals can prepare by having a plan in place in case of a disaster, including a evacuation route, a emergency kit, and a plan for communicating with family members. They can also stay informed about weather forecasts and emergency instructions from local authorities.