Hurricane Season 2024: Will We See Another System in November?
The Current Situation
The most recent storm of the 2024 season was dismantled by strong wind shear just a week ago, with the final advisory issued last Tuesday as the system was pulling away from The Bahamas. Since then, seven quiet days have settled across the basin, with more to come this week. The question remains whether a late-blooming system will unfold, putting November in play for the 8th time in the last 10 years.
Monitoring Development in the Caribbean
The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring development potential in the Caribbean Sea for early November. With a steady, but low-confidence, signal continuing to display in the long-range models, the National Hurricane Center is hovering on a medium chance for development over the next several days.
Short-Term Forecast
In the short term, keep your expectations low for any development. Should something stir, a broad area of low pressure (searching for a steering mechanism) is likely the main forecast concern at this time. If this is the outcome, it won’t likely get going until this weekend…at the earliest.
Looking Ahead
Assuming development, it’s possible the system could turn back to the west towards the Yucatan or head northeast and leave the Caribbean with a passage over the Greater Antilles. At this point in the season, wind shear becomes increasingly likely in the higher latitudes, so a through play on the U.S. would be tough to come by and remains the least likely of outcomes.
Conclusion
A system must first form before any possible outcomes can be realistically addressed. If we happen to get to the point where a name is needed, "Patty" is next on the list. For now, I’ll leave you with the same advice that we’ve projected all season… check in occasionally to see what’s going on. The homestretch of the hurricane season is finally here.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is a late-blooming system possible in November?
A: Yes, it is possible, but not guaranteed.
Q: What are the chances of development in the Caribbean?
A: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the situation and estimating a medium chance for development over the next several days.
Q: When can we expect any development?
A: If a system develops, it’s possible it won’t get going until this weekend…at the earliest.
Q: What is the likelihood of a system impacting the U.S.?
A: At this point, it’s highly unlikely due to increasing wind shear in the higher latitudes.
