Above-average hurricane season ahead, experts say
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be “above average,” with a total of 17 named storms, according to researchers at Colorado State University.
In their annual spring hurricane outlook, CSU forecasters predicted that nine of those named storms will become hurricanes, and four will be major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
The 1991–2020 average was 14.4 named storms and 7.2 hurricanes, with 3.2 major hurricanes.
CSU hurricane researchers predicted that the 2025 hurricane season will be about 25% more active than the average season from 1991–2020. Last season’s hurricane season was about 30% more active than the average season.
CSU’s forecast comes on the heels of other weather service outlooks, and they don’t necessarily agree on things.
In March, data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicated that the Atlantic basin would likely to experience an average or near-average season.
In late March, AccuWeather called for a “Dynamic” 2025 season with 13 to 18 named storms, with 7 to 10 of those becoming hurricanes, and three to five strengthening into major hurricanes. The AccuWeather numbers are more broad, and set 2025 as less active than 2024, but at or above historical averages from 1990 to 2020. The higher end of AccuWeather’s forecast is similar to CSU’s numbers.
The National Hurricane Center has not yet released its 2025 forecast.
Introduction to Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and runs through November 30.
Factors Influencing Hurricane Season
Sea Surface Temperatures
Above-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are primary factors for this year’s storm season, according to researchers at Colorado State University.
Hotter-than-normal, sea-surface temperatures work in two ways, according to the researchers. First, they generally fuel hurricane formation.
Secondly, when spring sea-surface temperatures are high in the eastern Atlantic, as they are now, it tends to weaken the Bermuda High, a semi-permanent high pressure system over the Atlantic. A weaker high means weaker trade winds across the Atlantic. That, in turn, will likely lead to a continued above-average water temperatures for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season.
“Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation,” the report said.
This map depicts the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic as of April 1, 2025. The warmer the color, the more the sea surface temperature is above the average for the date. (Courtesy NOAA)
La Niña and El Niño Impacts
The report said that the current weak La Niña is likely to transition to neutral conditions over the next couple of months, and it’s unclear if an El Niño will kick in during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October.
An El Niño would ramp up westerly wind shear across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, which can topple hurricanes. The odds of an El Niño emerging are quite low, though (13% per the latest NOAA outlook). As a result, the upper wind conditions will probably be conducive to hurricane formation.
“Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of a warm Atlantic and the unlikelihood of El Niño, the CSU forecast team is predicting an above-normal season,” the report said.
Forecasting Models
CSU researchers formulated the report by combining several weather models and a combination of information from prediction centers in both Europe and Asia. The models use 25 to 40 years of historical data on Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, sea-level pressures, vertical wind shear levels, the El Niño phenomenon and other factors.
Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report, said that so far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017.
Probability of Major Hurricanes Making Landfall
The CSU report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025:
— 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
— 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
— 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
— 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).
Conclusion
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above average, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The season is influenced by above-average sea surface temperatures and the unlikelihood of an El Niño event. It is essential for residents in hurricane-prone areas to be prepared and stay informed about the latest forecast.
FAQs
Q: What is the predicted number of named storms for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
A: 17 named storms.
Q: How many of the named storms are predicted to become hurricanes?
A: 9 named storms are predicted to become hurricanes.
Q: What is the average number of named storms for the Atlantic hurricane season from 1991-2020?
A: 14.4 named storms.
Q: What is the probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the entire U.S. coastline?
A: 51%.
Q: What is the probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula?
A: 26%.
Originally Published: April 3, 2025 at 10:00 AM EDT
