Tropical Storms May Still Form in the Caribbean
Late Season Flare-up Possible
Temperatures have cooled in Florida recently, making it tempting to think that hurricane season is over. However, Mother Nature may have something different in mind. In late October and November, the tropical Atlantic calms down and tends not to produce storms, but the Caribbean is a different story.
Forecasters Warn of Potential Systems
Forecasters warn that several factors in the western Caribbean, including high water temperatures, indicate that a system could kick up in that region some time after Halloween. Brad Pugh, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) climate prediction center, believes that a tropical cyclone is likely to form in the next two to three weeks in the Caribbean. He notes that NOAA’s calculations indicate a 40-60% chance of development in the next two weeks in the same area that spawned both hurricanes Helene and Milton.
Factors Favoring Development
There are several factors that are favoring the development of a tropical system. Firstly, sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean are still hotter than normal for this time of year. Hot water fuels hurricanes. Additionally, the position of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a global weather pattern that can either enhance or limit tropical storms, is expected to favor tropical cyclone development.
Potential Tracks
Pugh explains that storms forming off Honduras and Belize can track either east toward Florida, north to Texas, or west into Central America. It’s far too early to predict movement. However, some models show development as early as the end of October, while others suggest it may happen around the first week of November.
Factors Hampering Formation
While it’s possible for a system to develop, there are factors that could hamper formation, including a dip in the jet stream or a trough of low pressure, which could increase vertical wind shear and inhibit development. However, there are no signs of this happening through early November.
Florida’s Risk Level
Meteorologist and hurricane preparedness specialist Craig Setzer believes that Florida is less at risk as we near November. "We’re into the time of year where we get cold fronts coming through Florida and the Gulf of Mexico," he said. This cools the upper layer of water in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters near Florida, removing the energy source needed to support hurricanes.
Conclusion
While the Caribbean is still hot enough to spark a tropical system, the waters in the Atlantic and Gulf near Florida are cool enough to act as a deterrent to a storm coming up from the Caribbean. Although there is a risk, it is not as high as it was during the peak of hurricane season.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is it possible for hurricanes to form in November?
A: Yes, while it is less likely, it is still possible for hurricanes to form in November.
Q: What factors are favoring the development of a tropical storm?
A: High water temperatures in the Caribbean and the position of the Madden-Julian Oscillation are favoring development.
Q: What is the likelihood of a system forming in the next two weeks?
A: According to NOAA, there is a 40-60% chance of development in the next two weeks in the same area that spawned both hurricanes Helene and Milton.
Q: How much of a risk does Florida face in terms of hurricane landfall?
A: While there is some risk, the waters in the Atlantic and Gulf near Florida are cool enough to act as a deterrent to a storm coming up from the Caribbean. Florida is less at risk than it was during the peak of hurricane season.
