Tropical Threat in the Caribbean
Introduction to the Tropical Wave
A tropical wave, located very near the islands in the southeastern Caribbean on Sunday, could develop by midweek — potentially into a tropical storm, experts said.
The system “currently lacks a closed circulation,” but is churning up a large area of showers and thunderstorms, which are expected to impact the Windward Islands in the southeastern Caribbean through Monday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The system is predicted to start organizing midweek in the central or southern Caribbean, moving west at about 20 mph.
Potential for Development
“As it reaches the warm waters of the Caribbean early this week, low wind shear may allow it to quickly become a tropical storm,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
The next named storm would be Melissa.
“Atmospheric conditions are primed for a storm to form in the Caribbean,” DaSilva said. “The waters are exceptionally warm since the Caribbean has not been disturbed by a single tropical storm or hurricane so far this season.”
Current Status and Projections
As of 8 a.m. Sunday, the National Hurricane Center has given it a 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 60% chance of developing in the next seven days, a rise in odds since Saturday.
“The storm would have to get to Jamaica or Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula to be of concern to Florida as we see it now,” DaSilva said.
“The track of the disturbance is unusually far south, especially for October,” Fox Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross wrote in his Hurricane Intel blog. “One of the open questions about the forecast is whether the system will track so close to the South American coast that it won’t be able to organize and intensify.”
Potential Impact and Trajectory
“If the system remains weak and steers westward, it may continue on a path into Central America with no additional U.S. threat,” DaSilva said.
Four hurricanes have formed so far in the Atlantic season, and none has hit the U.S. Of the 12 named Atlantic storms so far, only Tropical Storm Chantal has made a U.S. landfall.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
Conclusion
The tropical wave in the Caribbean is a potential threat that could develop into a tropical storm by midweek. With warm waters and low wind shear, the conditions are primed for a storm to form. However, the trajectory of the storm is still uncertain, and it may pose a threat to Florida or the U.S. only if it reaches Jamaica or Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula.
FAQs
What is the current status of the tropical wave?
The tropical wave is currently located near the islands in the southeastern Caribbean and has a 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 60% chance of developing in the next seven days.
What are the conditions like for storm formation?
The waters in the Caribbean are exceptionally warm, and the low wind shear may allow the system to quickly become a tropical storm.
What is the potential impact of the storm?
The storm could pose a threat to Florida or the U.S. if it reaches Jamaica or Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, but if it remains weak and steers westward, it may continue on a path into Central America with no additional U.S. threat.
How long does hurricane season last?
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
What is the name of the next potential storm?
The next named storm would be Melissa.
Originally Published: October 19, 2025 at 6:58 AM EDT
