Introduction to the Tropical System
A tropical wave, currently in the central Atlantic, is expected to reach the Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week, where it could develop some, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The wave is expected to move west between 15 mph and 20 mph over the next few days. As of 2 p.m. Thursday, it has a 20% chance of developing in the next seven days, the hurricane center said.
Expected Movement and Development
By Sunday or Monday, the disturbance is expected to reach the islands in the southeastern Caribbean and start organizing a few days later in the central or southern Caribbean, Fox Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross wrote in his Hurricane Intel blog Thursday morning.
“The track of the disturbance is unusually far south, especially for October,” Norcross wrote. “In fact, one of the open questions about the forecast is whether the system will track so close to the South American coast that it won’t be able to organize and intensify.”
Chances of Intensification
The odds that the disturbance becomes a strong storm are “in the very low range,” according to various long-range models, Norcross wrote.
The next named storm would be Melissa.
Four hurricanes have formed so far in the Atlantic season, and none has hit the U.S. Of the 12 named Atlantic storms so far, only Tropical Storm Chantal has made a U.S. landfall.
Hurricane Season Overview
Hurricane season runs from through Nov. 30.
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Conclusion
The potential tropical system heading towards the Caribbean is a reminder that hurricane season is still active. While the chances of this system developing into a strong storm are low, it’s essential to stay informed and prepared for any potential weather disturbances.
FAQs
Q: What is the current location of the tropical wave?
A: The tropical wave is currently in the central Atlantic.
Q: What are the chances of the disturbance developing in the next seven days?
A: The disturbance has a 20% chance of developing in the next seven days.
Q: What is the expected movement of the disturbance?
A: The disturbance is expected to move west between 15 mph and 20 mph over the next few days.
Q: What is the next named storm?
A: The next named storm would be Melissa.
