Introduction to the Tropical Threat
A wet weekend is in store for South Florida and much of the state’s east coast as forecasters watch a low pressure system that is expected to form near the Bahamas.
The National Hurricane Center said there is a slight (10%) chance of a tropical system developing along the front. Either way, an extended period of rain will batter portions of the state as the system slowly drifts to the northwest.
Expected Weather Conditions
“Regardless of if it develops or not, the main threat will be heavy rainfall and the potential of localized flooding,” said Sammy Hadi, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Miami.
Forecasters are predicting increased rain and thunderstorm chances each day through this weekend, according to the National Weather Service. Instead of prolonged, heavy rain, South Floridians can expect sporadic, heavy showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening starting Thursday through Sunday, with the more eastern areas of the region at the greatest risk. There is also a slight risk of excessive rainfall across South Florida for Friday and Saturday, which could cause localized flooding in urban areas.
Rainfall and Flooding Predictions
East coast metro areas will likely see about 2-3 inches of rain through Sunday morning, with a maximum of 4-6 inches possible.
Beaches continue to be windy with high waves in the wake of former Hurricane Imelda, and hazardous marine and beach conditions remain heading into the weekend. All South Florida beaches have a high risk of rip currents through Saturday, and a high surf advisory is in effect for Palm Beach County beaches through Sunday morning.
Monitoring Tropical Development
Meanwhile, forecasters continue to watch an area of the central Atlantic for tropical development. A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa and could interact with another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two disturbances in the Atlantic for development. (National Hurricane Center/Courtesy)
The “combined feature” could develop some as it moves west-northwest. It has a 40% chance of developing in the next week as of Friday. If there is tropical development, it’s too soon to be confident about its track.
Forecasting the Storm’s Path
“In general, the forecasts that predict a strong storm or a hurricane bend the system north into the open ocean,” Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross wrote on his blog, Hurricane Intel. “But it’s too early to rely on any forecasts at this point. We’ll have to see what shape the system is in when it’s over the tropical Atlantic next week.”
Looking beyond the 7-day outlook, forecasters are watching for the potential for tropical development in the northwest Caribbean or Gulf. Any development in that region is a significant concern at this point in the season.
Concerns About Rapid Intensification
“The ocean heat content is exceptionally high in the Gulf and western Caribbean,” AccuWeather’s hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. “If you get a storm in there … we could be dealing with rapid intensification. There’s so much energy that’s in the ocean that has been untapped” due to much inactivity this Atlantic hurricane season.
A man walks in a passing rain shower in Tamarac on Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025. (Carline Jean/South Florida Sun Sentinel)
The Current Hurricane Season
By the end of September, the U.S. usually has at least one hurricane landfall, if not several. Not so in 2025. Four hurricanes have formed so far in the Atlantic season, and none has hit the U.S.
By early Friday, Hurricane Imelda had dissipated east of Bermuda and was no longer being tracked by the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
Conclusion
The tropical threat near Florida is expected to bring heavy rain and potential flooding this weekend. Residents are advised to stay informed and take necessary precautions to ensure their safety. The National Hurricane Center and other weather forecasting agencies will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as necessary.
FAQs
Q: What is the chance of a tropical system developing along the front?
A: The National Hurricane Center said there is a slight (10%) chance of a tropical system developing along the front.
Q: How much rain is expected in East coast metro areas?
A: East coast metro areas will likely see about 2-3 inches of rain through Sunday morning, with a maximum of 4-6 inches possible.
Q: Are there any concerns about rapid intensification?
A: Yes, the ocean heat content is exceptionally high in the Gulf and western Caribbean, which could lead to rapid intensification if a storm develops in that region.
Q: How long does hurricane season last?
A: Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
Originally Published: October 3, 2025 at 7:27 AM EDT
