Introduction to the Storms
South Florida can expect to start seeing the effects of what is likely to become Tropical Storm Imelda within the next 24 hours, forecasters say, as the system strengthens east of the state. Meanwhile, nearby, Hurricane Humberto has intensified into a Category 4 major storm.
The Unusual Setup of the Two Systems
The highly unusual set-up of the two systems so close to the U.S. continues to cause significant forecast uncertainty. Will Imelda make landfall somewhere along the southeast coast? Or will Humberto grab on and pull it east? Even in the latter scenario, which would spare Georgia and the Carolinas from a direct hit, Imelda would “still be large enough and close enough to cause wind and coastal flooding impacts along the southeastern U.S. coast, as well as heavy rainfall/flooding concerns in inland areas,” National Hurricane Center forecasters said in their Saturday morning advisory.
The Most Dangerous Scenario
In the most dangerous scenario, a landfall by Imelda, catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall could occur. Forecast models remain split on Saturday, the Hurricane Center said. On Friday they were indicating a landfall. But by Saturday morning, the majority of the models showed Imelda slowing down significantly — possibly even stalling — directly off the coast and then turning east and out to sea by the pull of Humberto.
Imelda’s Potential
Imelda could briefly become a hurricane in the early to middle part of next week, which is when it will be closest to the U.S. coast. As for South Florida, most of the effects will begin Sunday with hazardous beach conditions and possible heavy rain. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the waters of Palm Beach County until Monday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service Miami. “Conditions across these areas will begin to deteriorate Sunday morning,” the weather service said.
Tropical Storm Watch
A tropical storm watch is also in place for the east coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin county line to the Flagler/Volusia county line. Though the storm is expected to stay east of South Florida, the Weather Service said the exact path it takes will affect how much rainfall the region sees. If it tracks closer to the peninsula, it could lead to higher rainfall totals along the eastern coast.
Effects on South Florida
“Currently, the likely scenarios show the developing storm passing offshore of the Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach metro area,” Fox Weather hurricane expert Bryan Norcross wrote in his blog, Hurricane Intel. “But on Sunday, disruptive weather in the form of bands of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible. Again, it depends on exactly where the storm ends up forming. Forecasters warned that an increasing threat of heavy rain should be expected early next week from coastal Georgia to the Carolinas, with the potential for flash, urban and river flooding.
Hurricane Humberto
The most significant influence on the track of Imelda is Hurricane Humberto to its east. “A slight difference in track, speed, and intensity looks to decide whether Imelda curves into the Southeast coast or gets pulled out to sea by its big brother Humberto,” Norcross said. Spaghetti models for the storm show computer predictions split on which scenario unfolds.
As of Saturday morning, Humberto’s maximum sustained wind speeds had increased to 145 mph, making it a Category 4 storm. It was located about 365 miles north-northeast of the Caribbean islands, with hurricane-force winds extending 25 miles out from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward 105 miles. Swells generated by Humberto, likely to cause heavy surf and rip currents, will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda this weekend.
Latest Forecast Track
Humberto is tracking slowly to the northwest and is forecast to speed up, and turn north early next week. Here’s the latest forecast track of Hurricane Humberto, which intensified into a Category 4 storm early Saturday. Humberto “will likely create rough surf and rip currents that could impact beaches across the Bahamas and the East Coast starting this weekend,” AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva said. “People in Bermuda and along the East Coast should monitor forecast updates closely. The storm may develop quickly.” Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Conclusion
The interaction between Imelda and Hurricane Humberto poses a significant threat to the U.S. coast, particularly the southeast region. The uncertainty in the forecast models makes it challenging to predict the exact path and impact of Imelda. However, it is clear that both storms have the potential to cause significant damage and disruption to the region. It is essential for residents and visitors to stay informed and follow the latest updates from weather forecasters and emergency management officials.
FAQs
Q: What is the current status of Tropical Storm Imelda?
A: As of the latest update, Imelda is expected to become a tropical storm within the next 24 hours and could potentially become a hurricane early next week.
Q: What is the forecasted path of Imelda?
A: The forecast models are split, with some indicating a landfall along the southeast coast and others showing the storm turning east and out to sea due to the influence of Hurricane Humberto.
Q: What are the potential impacts of Imelda?
A: Imelda could cause wind and coastal flooding impacts along the southeastern U.S. coast, as well as heavy rainfall and flooding concerns in inland areas.
Q: What is the current status of Hurricane Humberto?
A: As of the latest update, Humberto has intensified into a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained wind speeds of 145 mph.
Q: What are the potential impacts of Hurricane Humberto?
A: Humberto could cause rough surf and rip currents that could impact beaches across the Bahamas and the East Coast, as well as heavy rain and flooding in some areas.
