Introduction to Hurricane Season
A complicated forecast scenario continues to unfold Friday near the Bahamas as Hurricane Humberto intensifies and a system that is expected to become Imelda develops, strengthens and moves east of the Florida coast. The potential impacts to the U.S. East Coast remain uncertain and depend in large part on how Humberto and eventually Imelda interact, if at all.
Current Storm Developments
It is Imelda that would pose the most significant threat, forecasters say, despite Humberto being the more powerful storm — rapidly intensifying to near Category 4 strength over the next few days, the National Hurricane Center said. Imelda is forecast to develop much closer to the U.S. coast, according to Hurricane Center maps, and become a tropical depression later today or early Saturday, and eventually become Tropical Storm Imelda.
Threats to the U.S. Coast
The biggest threat from Imelda is to the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Forecasts show the storm approaching land late in the weekend or early next week. Whether it actually makes landfall, and how strong the storm is at the time, is uncertain as of Friday morning. If the storm develops and moves more slowly, it could be pulled away from the coast by the larger Hurricane Humberto. If it moves faster, it could continue on a track north and make landfall, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to Georgia or the Carolinas.
Forecast Uncertainty
“There’s the best-case possibility that after moving north offshore of Florida for a while, likely-Imelda gets scooped by the big upper low and follows likely-Hurricane Humberto out to sea,” Fox Weather hurricane expert Bryan Norcross wrote in his blog, Hurricane Intel. “In this scenario, Bermuda will have to watch both storms.” The National Hurricane Center’s forecast map shows the area east of Florida where a tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Imelda is likely to develop. (National Hurricane Center/courtesy)
National Hurricane Center Advisory
“While there remains considerable uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week,” National Hurricane Center forecasters wrote in their public advisory Friday morning. “Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the system.”
Current Storm Status
As of early Friday, Humberto’s maximum sustained wind speeds had increased to 75 mph, making it a Category 1 storm. It was located about 465 miles northeast of the Caribbean islands, with hurricane-force winds extending 10 miles out from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward 105 miles. Humberto is tracking slowly to the northwest and is forecast to speed up, intensify and turn north over the weekend. Here’s the latest forecast for Hurricane Humberto as of Friday morning. (National Hurricane Center/courtesy)
System Development
The system that may eventually become Imelda is centered near the Dominican Republic as of Friday morning. It is forecast to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba as it continues to organize. Wind shear and high terrain that has been hampering the system should subside by Friday as the system encounters the warm water near the Bahamas, said WPLG-Ch. 10 Hurricane Specialist Michael Lowry. Those two factors should allow the system to become more organized.
Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models — the combined forecast paths generated by the various storm modeling computers — vary. But they show the storm tracking close to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, through or east of the Bahamas and off the east coast of Florida and Georgia.
A complicated forecast scenario continues to unfold Friday near the Bahamas as Hurricane Humberto intensifies and a system that is expected to become Imelda develops, strengthens and moves east of the Florida coast.
The potential impacts to the U.S. East Coast remain uncertain and depend in large part on how Humberto and eventually Imelda interact, if at all.
Potential Impacts
Humberto “will likely create rough surf and rip currents that could impact beaches across the Bahamas and the East Coast starting this weekend,” AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva said. “People in Bermuda and along the East Coast should monitor forecast updates closely. The storm may develop quickly.” Any impact to the U.S would be late in the weekend or early next week, Norcross said. But he added that the long-range forecast is murky.
Forecasting Challenges
“A fundamental rule of forecasting is that forecasts for disorganized, just-organizing, or slow-moving systems are subject to larger-than-normal errors and subject to change. This system looks to check two of those boxes,” he said. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Conclusion
The situation with Hurricane Humberto and the potential development of Imelda is complex and subject to change. It is essential for individuals in the affected areas to stay informed and follow the latest forecast updates. The potential impacts of these storms could be significant, and it is crucial to be prepared.
FAQs
Q: What is the current status of Hurricane Humberto?
A: As of early Friday, Humberto’s maximum sustained wind speeds had increased to 75 mph, making it a Category 1 storm.
Q: What is the potential threat from Imelda?
A: Imelda poses a significant threat to the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, with the potential for heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge impacts.
Q: When can we expect the storms to impact the U.S.?
A: Any impact to the U.S. would be late in the weekend or early next week.
Q: How can I stay informed about the storms?
A: It is essential to follow the latest forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and other reliable sources.
Q: What is the forecast uncertainty?
A: There remains considerable uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, and forecasts are subject to larger-than-normal errors and subject to change.
Originally Published: September 26, 2025 at 7:20 AM EDT
