Introduction to Tropical Storm Gabrielle
A tropical depression is likely to form in the Atlantic late this week or over the weekend as it tracks west toward the Caribbean, according to National Hurricane Center forecasters.
Formation and Tracking
How strong the storm gets and how close it comes to the U.S., the Caribbean islands or Bermuda are very much uncertain because the tropical wave is currently so far east. The Hurricane Center said it’s possible the system will become Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the 7th named storm of the season.
Current Forecast
As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center was giving the system a 30% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance in the next seven days. The system is forecast to move west to west-northwest across the eastern and central Atlantic into early next week.
Atmospheric Conditions
“The consensus of the computer forecast models is that the atmospheric conditions ahead of it will be supportive enough that it can develop into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gabrielle,” Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross wrote on his blog, Hurricane Intel.
Potential Path and Strength
Those long-range computer models, known as the “spaghetti models,” seem to favor a path that turns north before the U.S. coast, following a similar track as Hurricane Erin last month.
Factors Influencing the Storm’s Track
“Assuming the system is able to organize, its strength is going to have a lot to do with its future track,” Norcross wrote. “The computer forecasts that organize and strengthen the system before it reaches the vicinity of the Caribbean islands show it turning quickly to the north into the open Atlantic.”
The National Hurricane Center is giving a tropical wave in the Atlantic a 70% chance of developing as of 8 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2025. (National Hurricane Center/Courtesy)
Mid-September Hurricane Season Ramp-up
Weather models indicate a mid-September ramp-up for hurricane season with extra hot sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean.
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Tropical Hazard Outlook for September
The tropical hazard outlook for September, issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Tuesday, indicates that forecasters expect the warmer waters to increase the chances of tropical activity in the Gulf next week. The second half of hurricane season typically sees more activity in the Caribbean and Gulf than the first half.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows tropical activity in the Gulf and Atlantic picking up in the middle of September. (NOAA/courtesy)
By the week of Sept. 17, the threat of potential tropical activity in the central Atlantic and eastern Caribbean increases substantially. September and October are historically the most active months of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the potential formation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle highlights the need for continued monitoring of weather conditions, especially as the hurricane season progresses into its most active months. It is crucial for residents in potentially affected areas to stay informed and prepared.
FAQs
Q: What is the current forecast for Tropical Storm Gabrielle?
A: As of the latest update, the National Hurricane Center gives the system a 30% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance in the next seven days.
Q: Where is the tropical wave currently located?
A: The tropical wave is currently in the Atlantic, tracking west toward the Caribbean.
Q: What factors will influence the storm’s track?
A: The strength of the system will play a significant role in determining its future track, with stronger systems potentially turning north into the open Atlantic more quickly.
Q: What is the outlook for hurricane season in mid-September?
A: Weather models indicate a ramp-up in hurricane season activity due to hot sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean, with September and October being the most active months historically.
Originally Published: September 3, 2025 at 8:08 AM EDT
