Introduction to Tropical Systems
Another week, another tropical wave to keep an eye on. The system is in the far eastern Atlantic and the National Hurricane Center said it is likely to develop into a tropical depression or even, eventually, Tropical Storm or Hurricane Gabrielle. But it’s many days away, and its future strength and track are very uncertain, forecasters say. For now, the tropical lull continues into the peak stretch of hurricane season.
Causes of Forecast Uncertainty
The reason for the forecast’s uncertainty is a weak steering current that’s pushing the wave very slowly into the Atlantic, says Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross. “The steering currents are weak across the tropical belt, so it’s going to take at least a week until the system reaches the general vicinity of the Caribbean islands,” Norcross wrote on his blog, Hurricane Intel. But although conditions do not strongly favor development over the next several days, “it doesn’t take much for a tropical depression to spin up,” Norcross added.
Current Development Chances
As of 8 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center was giving the system a 30% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. “In about a week, however, several of the long-range computer forecasts show the system developing north or northeast of the Caribbean islands,” Norcross wrote. The Hurricane Center said there is a 70% chance of development over the next seven days. The National Hurricane Center gives a tropical system in the Atlantic a 70% chance of forming in the next seven days. (National Hurricane Center/Courtesy)
Spaghetti Models and Future Track
From there, the long-range computer models, known as the “spaghetti models,” seem to favor a path that turns north before the U.S. coast, following a similar track as Hurricane Erin last month. “There is a consensus that a strong dip in the jet stream will be reinforced over the eastern U.S., which should continue to deflect any strong storms to the north,” Norcross said. “The jet stream has much less steering effect on weak systems, however, so if the disturbance doesn’t develop into much of a system, its future track is much less certain.”
Mid-September Hurricane Season Ramp-Up
Weather models indicate a mid-September ramp-up for hurricane season with extra hot sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean. According to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane specialist with Colorado State University, Caribbean water temperatures are particularly hot this year, which will make storms more likely.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the odds of a tropical system developing in the Atlantic have increased, with a 70% chance of formation over the next seven days. The spaghetti models suggest a path that turns north before the U.S. coast, but the future track is still uncertain. It’s essential to monitor the system’s development and track, especially with the peak stretch of hurricane season approaching.
FAQs
Q: What is the current chance of the tropical system developing in the next 48 hours?
A: The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 30% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.
Q: What do the spaghetti models suggest about the system’s future track?
A: The spaghetti models seem to favor a path that turns north before the U.S. coast, following a similar track as Hurricane Erin last month.
Q: Why are Caribbean water temperatures significant for hurricane season?
A: Caribbean water temperatures are particularly hot this year, which will make storms more likely, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane specialist with Colorado State University.
Originally Published: September 2, 2025 at 7:53 AM EDT
