Introduction to Hurricane Erin
Hurricane Erin strengthened into a powerful Category 5 storm on Saturday only a day after becoming a hurricane. It’s forecast to continue to intensify for at least several hours.
NOAA Hurricane Hunters found maximum sustained winds have increased to nearly 160 mph during a pass through the storm just after 11 a.m. Saturday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 157 mph or higher.
Current Storm Conditions
By Saturday evening, winds around Erin are forecast to reach 165 mph. The storm joins last year’s Hurricane Milton as one of the fastest intensifying Atlantic hurricanes. Like Erin, Milton also went from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm in around 24 hours before making landfall as a Category 3 in Siesta Key in October.
Unique Characteristics of Hurricane Erin
Erin’s arrival earlier in the season makes it unique by comparison. The steep drop in the storm’s central pressure over the last 24 hours makes it the “fastest deepening Atlantic hurricane” before September, beating Hurricane Emily’s 2005 record, according to Sam Lillo, a meteorologist and software engineer for DTN Weather. Most of Erin’s intensification occurred during a 12- to 15-hour window overnight, according to Dan Pydynowski, a meteorologist at AccuWeather. By 5 p.m. Friday, Erin’s winds remained only 75 mph.
Factors Contributing to Rapid Intensification
The hurricane “had all of the ingredients” necessary to rapidly intensify, Pydynowski said. Erin has continued moving westward into increasingly warm waters and it faces little to no wind shear, which tears apart storms. The dry air that hindered it earlier this week has moved away, and it’s far enough northeast of the Caribbean islands that there are no land masses interfering with its circulation.
Forecast and Expected Movement
As it continues to track to the west, Erin will continue to be in conditions favorable for intensification, including warm ocean waters and low sheer. However, forecasters do expect the storm’s intensity to “level out” soon, according to National Hurricane Center Director Mike Brennan. A secondary eyewall has begun to form, indicating that the intensity will stabilize while the storm grows bigger in size. “We expect to see Erin peak here in intensity relatively soon,” Brennan said in an update late Saturday morning.
Impact on the Caribbean and U.S. East Coast
Erin’s center is forecast to move just north of the islands in the far eastern Caribbean, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico into Sunday, the hurricane center said. The threat to the U.S. East Coast has diminished with each forecast as a sharp turn to the north and eventually northeast is forecast to happen over the next several days, steering Erin well clear of the mainland. South Florida beachgoers are being warned of life-threatening rip currents that are expected along the coastline early next week, as part of the impacts from Erin.
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
Several islands along the northeast border of the Caribbean Sea are under tropical storm watches, meaning tropical storm conditions could arrive within 12 hours. Erin is expected to bring heavy rainfall up to 6 inches through Sunday in areas of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and southern and eastern Puerto Rico, the hurricane center said Thursday afternoon. The hurricane center’s cone of uncertainty was just north of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, according to the center’s Saturday morning update. Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive at the island as early as 8 p.m. Saturday. High winds could spur power outages.
Current Status and Movement
As of 2 p.m. Saturday, Erin was 205 miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico, moving west at 16 mph, a slow-down from earlier in the morning. Erin’s tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 140 miles from the center while hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles.
Other Tropical Activity
Elsewhere in the Tropics
A disturbance has only a 10% chance of developing in the Atlantic as of 2 p.m. Saturday. Forecasters are tracking a new system in the western Atlantic as of Friday night. An area of showers and thunderstorms off the coast of North Carolina could develop some over the weekend, but conditions are expected to hinder any further development by Monday, the hurricane center said. As of 2 p.m., Saturday it has a low, 10% chance of developing in the next two to seven days.
Conclusion
Hurricane Erin’s rapid intensification into a Category 5 storm is a significant concern for the Caribbean and potentially the U.S. East Coast. While the storm’s forecasted path indicates a turn away from the mainland, the threat of life-threatening rip currents and heavy rainfall remains. It is essential for those in the affected areas to stay informed and follow the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center.
FAQs
- Q: What is the current category of Hurricane Erin?
A: Hurricane Erin is currently a Category 5 storm. - Q: What are the forecasted winds for Hurricane Erin by Saturday evening?
A: Winds around Erin are forecast to reach 165 mph by Saturday evening. - Q: Is the U.S. East Coast under threat from Hurricane Erin?
A: The threat to the U.S. East Coast has diminished with each forecast, but South Florida beachgoers are warned of life-threatening rip currents. - Q: What is the chance of another disturbance developing in the Atlantic?
A: A disturbance has only a 10% chance of developing in the Atlantic as of 2 p.m. Saturday. - Q: How much rainfall is expected from Hurricane Erin?
A: Erin is expected to bring heavy rainfall up to 6 inches through Sunday in areas of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and southern and eastern Puerto Rico.
