Introduction to Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin formed Monday in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean and could become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season later this week, forecasters said. By Tuesday morning, Erin was about 690 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Erin was moving westward at 22 mph and was expected to continue on that general path for several days. Currently, it is not affecting any land masses.
When Could Erin Become a Hurricane?
According to the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Erin is expected to decrease in forward speed and gradually turn toward the west-northwest. "Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane in the next couple of days," the hurricane center said. Erin is expected to become a hurricane sometime Wednesday, with major hurricane intensity (Category 3) to be achieved possibly by the weekend.
The forecast cone of Tropical Storm Erin on Aug. 12, 2025.
Will Erin Hit Florida?
"I know when you look at this track, you’re thinking, ‘Oh, it looks like it’s headed straight for us here,’" NBC6 meteorologist Adam Berg said. "[But] most of the long range models do have it turned to the north, so there’s probably a better chance of Bermuda being in play honestly than us here in the southeast." As of Tuesday, we are anticipating a gradual turn during the weekend, east of the Bahamas, keeping Erin out in the Atlantic waters. This trend will also keep the system north of the Greater and Lesser Antilles. "A lot of cascading error would need to unfold for there to be issues for the state of Florida," NBC6 meteorologist Ryan Phillips said. But a major hurricane even remotely close to the U.S. could of course come with a high risk of rip currents and rougher seas. NBC6 will watch for these impacts.
When Do Forecast Models Become More Certain?
Models tend to become less accurate as we go further out in time, which is why forecasts like the cone from the National Hurricane Center only go out five days. In the next one to two days, the storm’s forward speed and location will be scrutinized as little adjustments now can and will have an impact later. The more data is gathered in the initial stages of a storm, the better the predictions can be.
A Word of Caution About Social Media Posts and Misinformation
It’s normal to want to prepare for a potential storm, and you should ready a hurricane kit as part of the normal Atlantic hurricane season. But part of this interest may be fueled by the onslaught of recent social media chatter of a storm heading towards the United States in the coming weeks. This data is often sprayed across social channels with no explanation, context or disclaimer of limitations. Rather, it’s generally a worst-case scenario that is cherry-picked from hundreds of computer model forecasts in a given day. Remember, hurricane specialist John Morales says global forecast models forecasting beyond the seven to 10-day period often bet big on storms that, given the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, can only be placed in a bucket labeled “fantastical speculation."
Conclusion
In conclusion, Tropical Storm Erin has the potential to become a major hurricane in the coming days. While the current forecast track suggests that it may not directly hit Florida, it’s essential to continue monitoring the storm’s progress and be prepared for any potential impacts. It’s also crucial to be aware of the potential for misinformation on social media and rely on credible sources for updates on the storm.
FAQs
- Q: When is Tropical Storm Erin expected to become a hurricane?
A: Erin is expected to become a hurricane sometime Wednesday, with major hurricane intensity (Category 3) to be achieved possibly by the weekend. - Q: Will Tropical Storm Erin hit Florida?
A: Currently, the forecast track suggests that Erin will turn north and potentially affect Bermuda, rather than Florida. However, it’s essential to continue monitoring the storm’s progress. - Q: How can I stay informed about Tropical Storm Erin?
A: You can stay informed by following credible sources such as the National Hurricane Center and local news outlets like NBC6. - Q: What should I do to prepare for a potential storm?
A: You should ready a hurricane kit as part of the normal Atlantic hurricane season and stay informed about the storm’s progress.
