U.S. Fertility Rate Falls Below Replacement Level for 16th Year
The fertility rate in the U.S. dropped to an all-time low in 2024 with less than 1.6 kids per woman, new federal data released Thursday shows.
The U.S. was once among only a few developed countries with a rate that ensured each generation had enough children to replace itself — about 2.1 kids per woman. But it has been sliding in America for close to two decades as more women are waiting longer to have children or never taking that step at all.
Historical Context
The new statistic is on par with fertility rates in western European countries, according to World Bank data.
Alarmed by recent drops, the Trump administration has taken steps to increase falling birth rates, like issuing an executive order meant to expand access to and reduce costs of in vitro fertilization and backing the idea of “baby bonuses” that might encourage more couples to have kids.
Expert Insights
But there’s no reason to be alarmed, according to Leslie Root, a University of Colorado Boulder researcher focused on fertility and population policy.
“We’re seeing this as part of an ongoing process of fertility delay. We know that the U.S. population is still growing, and we still have a natural increase — more births than deaths,” she said.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the statistic for the total fertility rate with updated birth data for 2024.
Trends in Fertility Rates
In the early 1960s, the U.S. total fertility rate was around 3.5, but plummeted to 1.7 by 1976 after the Baby Boom ended. It gradually rose to 2.1 in 2007 before falling again, aside from a 2014 uptick. The rate in 2023 was 1.621, and inched down in 2024 to 1.599, according to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics.
Birth rates are generally declining for women in most age groups — and that doesn’t seem likely to change in the near future, said Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina.
People are marrying later and also worried about their ability to have the money, health insurance and other resources needed to raise children in a stable environment.
“Worry is not a good moment to have kids,” and that’s why birth rates in most age groups are not improving, she said.
Policy Measures
Asked about birth-promoting measures outlined by the Trump administration, Guzzo said they don’t tackle larger needs like parental leave and affordable child care.
“The things that they are doing are really symbolic and not likely to budge things for real Americans,” she said.
There needs to be more acceptance and understanding for people dealing with infertility, says Tawa Volden, who posts as @FertilityJourney on TikTok.
Increase in Births in New Data
The CDC’s new report, which is based on a more complete review of birth certificates than provisional data released earlier this year, also showed a 1% increase in births — about 33,000 more — last year compared to the prior year.
That brought the yearly national total to just over 3.6 million babies born.
But this is different: The provisional data indicated birth rate increases last year for women in their late 20s and 30s. However, the new report found birth rate declines for women in their 20s and early 30s, and no change for women in their late 30s.
What happened? CDC officials said it was due to recalculations stemming from a change in the U.S. Census population estimates used to compute the birth rate.
That’s plausible, Root said. As the total population of women of childbearing age grew due to immigration, it offset small increases in births to women in those age groups, she said.
Conclusion
The decline in the U.S. fertility rate is a complex issue with various factors contributing to the trend. While some experts are not alarmed, others believe that policy measures should be taken to address the concerns of potential parents. As the U.S. population continues to grow, it is essential to understand the implications of the declining fertility rate and work towards creating a supportive environment for individuals and families.
FAQs
Q: What is the current fertility rate in the U.S.?
A: The current fertility rate in the U.S. is less than 1.6 kids per woman.
Q: Why is the fertility rate declining in the U.S.?
A: The fertility rate is declining due to various factors, including women waiting longer to have children, concerns about financial stability, and lack of access to resources such as parental leave and affordable child care.
Q: Are there any policy measures being taken to address the declining fertility rate?
A: Yes, the Trump administration has taken steps to increase access to in vitro fertilization and has proposed "baby bonuses" to encourage couples to have kids.
Q: Is the decline in fertility rate a cause for concern?
A: Experts have differing opinions on the matter, with some believing that the decline is part of a natural process, while others think that policy measures should be taken to address the concerns of potential parents.
