Introduction to Tropical System Near Florida
A tropical system has a higher chance of developing near Florida late this week than previously forecast, according to the National Hurricane Center, with much of the state under threat of prolonged rainfall over the July 4th weekend.
Forecasters said a tropical or subtropical depression now has a 40% chance of developing in the next seven days from a low pressure system along a weak cold front that is expected to stall over the Gulf this week.
Forecast for July 4th Weekend
Regardless of development, rain and thunderstorms are likely in South Florida through this week and into next week, according to the National Weather Service forecast.
On Friday, July 4, South Florida will experience scattered thunderstorms in the morning that become more widespread in the afternoon, with a 60% chance of rain and a high of 84 degrees. The scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue at night with a 50% chance of rain and a low of 77 degrees.
Weekend Outlook
Don’t expect better outdoor weather on Saturday, either. The chance of rain increases to 90% on July 5 with thunderstorms likely.
Although the hurricane center said it did not expect “significant” tropical development, a system could form anywhere along a ridge that extends from the northern Gulf, across Florida and into the Atlantic. If it develops, the system is not expected to move very much along the stalled front, forecasters said.
Moisture and Precipitation
“The timing is still very uncertain, but towards the end of the week and into the weekend are the biggest (rain days) we’re looking at,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Jennifer Simmons.
Moisture will be coming from two directions, Simmons said. A southerly flow will bring moisture from the Caribbean. “Regardless of whether this system turns into a tropical event or not, we’re going to see an increase in moisture, which could lead to precipitation,” said Simmons. Flooding rainfall is also a potential risk, she said.
Hurricane Season Outlook
Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast for 2025 estimates 17 named storms, with nine of them becoming hurricanes.
The next named storm to form in the Atlantic basin would be Chantal.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the odds of a tropical system developing near Florida have increased, and the state is expected to experience prolonged rainfall over the July 4th weekend. Residents and visitors should be prepared for rain and thunderstorms, and stay informed about the latest forecast updates.
FAQs
Q: What is the chance of a tropical system developing near Florida?
A: The National Hurricane Center says there is a 40% chance of a tropical or subtropical depression developing in the next seven days.
Q: What is the weather forecast for July 4th in South Florida?
A: Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the morning, becoming more widespread in the afternoon, with a 60% chance of rain and a high of 84 degrees.
Q: Is flooding rainfall a potential risk?
A: Yes, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Jennifer Simmons, flooding rainfall is a potential risk due to the increase in moisture from the Caribbean.
Q: When does hurricane season end?
A: Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
Originally Published: July 2, 2025 at 7:23 AM EDT
