Introduction to Hurricane Forecasting
Forecasters are set to lose some of their sharpest eyes in the sky just a few months before Atlantic hurricane season peaks when the Department of Defense halts a key source of satellite data over cybersecurity concerns.
The Importance of Microwave Sensors
The data comes from microwave sensors attached to three aging polar-orbiting satellites operated for both military and civilian purposes. Data from the sensors is critical to hurricane forecasters because it allows them to peer through layers of clouds and into the center of a storm, where rain and thunderstorms develop, even at night. The sensors don’t rely on visible light.
Impact on Forecasting
Losing the data — at a time when the National Weather Service is releasing fewer weather balloons and the agency is short on meteorologists because of budget cuts — will make it more likely that forecasters miss key developments in a hurricane, several hurricane experts said. Those changes help meteorologists determine what level of threat a storm may pose and therefore how emergency managers ought to prepare. Microwave data offers some of the earliest indications that sustained winds are strengthening inside a storm.
Expert Insights
“It’s really the instrument that allows us to look under the hood. It’s definitely a significant loss. There’s no doubt at all hurricane forecasts will be degraded because of this,” said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher and senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. “They’re able to detect when an eye wall forms in a tropical storm and if it’s intensifying — or rapidly intensifying.”
Climate Change and Rapid Intensification
Researchers think rapid intensification is becoming more likely in tropical storms as the oceans warm as a result of human-caused climate change.
Satellite Operations
The three satellites are operated for both military and civilian purposes through the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, a joint effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Department of Defense.
Concerns and Downplays
While hurricane experts said they were concerned about losing the tool, Kim Doster, NOAA’s communications director, downplayed the decision’s effect on hurricane forecasting by the National Weather Service.
Alternative Data Sources
In an email, Doster said the military’s microwave data “is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio.” Doster said these models include data from geostationary satellites — a different system that constantly observes Earth from about 22,300 miles away and offers a vantage point that appears fixed because the satellites synchronize with Earth’s rotation.
Cybersecurity Concerns
A U.S. Space Force official said the satellites and their instruments in question remain functional and that the data will be sent directly to weather satellite readout terminals across the DOD. The Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center made the decision to stop processing that data and sharing it publicly, the official said.
Notification and Timeline
Earlier this week, a division of the Navy notified researchers that it would cease to process and share the data on or before June 30, and some researchers received an email from the Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, saying that its data storage and sharing program relied on a processing station that was using an “end-of-life” operating system with vulnerabilities.
Impact on Sea Ice Research
This microwave data is also used by snow and ice scientists to track the extent of polar sea ice, which helps scientists understand long-term climate trends. Sea ice forms from frozen ocean water. It grows in coverage during winter months and typically melts during warmer times of the year. Sea ice reflects sunlight back into space, which cools the planet. That makes it an important metric to track over time. The extent of summer Arctic sea ice is trending lower because of global warming.
Adaptation Plans
Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said his program learned of the Navy’s decision earlier this week. Meier said the satellites and sensors are about 16 years old. Researchers have been preparing for them to eventually fail, but they weren’t expecting the military to pull the plug on data with little warning, he said.
Conclusion
The loss of microwave data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program will significantly impact hurricane forecasting and sea ice research. While alternative data sources are available, the reduction in data will make it more challenging for forecasters to predict the trajectory and intensity of hurricanes, potentially putting public safety at risk.
FAQs
- What is the source of the microwave data used in hurricane forecasting?
- The microwave data comes from sensors attached to three aging polar-orbiting satellites operated by the Department of Defense for both military and civilian purposes.
- Why is the Department of Defense halting the satellite data?
- The data is being halted due to cybersecurity concerns related to the operating system used by the processing station.
- How will the loss of microwave data affect hurricane forecasting?
- The loss of microwave data will make it more likely that forecasters miss key developments in a hurricane, potentially leading to less accurate predictions and increased risk to public safety.
- Are there alternative data sources available for hurricane forecasting?
- Yes, alternative data sources include geostationary satellites, Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions, buoys, weather balloons, and land-based radar.
- How will the National Snow and Ice Data Center adapt to the loss of microwave data?
- The center plans to use similar microwave data from a Japanese satellite, called AMSR-2, instead.
