Introduction to Tropical Weather

Understanding tropical weather watches, warnings, and the cone is essential for residents in hurricane-prone areas. Knowing when to prepare for an approaching hurricane or tropical storm can be stressful, which is why it is crucial to refresh yourself and your family on understanding the forecast cone along with knowing the difference between watches and warnings.

Understanding the Forecast Cone

You will often see the cone issued once a storm has developed. The cone represents the most likely track of the impending tropical system.

It is essential to never focus on the center point of the cone as storm impacts will go well outside of the cone. The cone shows the timeline and projected storm path out to five days. It is a cone and not a line because the center of the storm could go anywhere within the range of the cone’s rings.

How to Interpret the Cone

The width of the cone usually starts out small and then grows larger as you go out in time. This is based on the historical forecast error which is a lot smaller in the near-term compared to the long-term. This means that the forecasters are more confident in the storm’s track in the short term, but less confident as the storm moves further into the future.

Watches and Warnings

Usually, if a storm is threatening your area, watches will be posted 48 hours ahead of impact while warnings are issued 36 hours ahead or less. Tropical storm watches are issued when tropical storm conditions of winds 39 mph or greater are possible, while hurricane watches are for winds of 74 mph or greater. These watches are upgraded to warnings when those storm conditions are expected or imminent.

Types of Watches and Warnings

There are two main types of watches and warnings:

• Tropical Storm Watch: issued when tropical storm conditions are possible
• Hurricane Watch: issued when hurricane conditions are possible
• Tropical Storm Warning: issued when tropical storm conditions are expected or imminent
• Hurricane Warning: issued when hurricane conditions are expected or imminent

Staying Informed

Originally Published: May 29, 2025 at 2:39 PM EDT
It is crucial to stay informed about the latest forecast and any watches or warnings that have been issued. This can be done by monitoring local news and weather reports, as well as signing up for emergency alerts from your local government.

Conclusion

Understanding tropical weather watches, warnings, and the cone is crucial for residents in hurricane-prone areas. By knowing the difference between watches and warnings and how to interpret the forecast cone, you can make informed decisions about how to prepare for an approaching storm.

FAQs

Q: What is the difference between a watch and a warning?
A: A watch is issued when storm conditions are possible, while a warning is issued when storm conditions are expected or imminent.
Q: How far in advance are watches and warnings issued?
A: Watches are usually issued 48 hours ahead of impact, while warnings are issued 36 hours ahead or less.
Q: What does the forecast cone represent?
A: The forecast cone represents the most likely track of the impending tropical system.
Q: How often is the forecast cone updated?
A: The forecast cone is updated regularly, usually every 6 hours, as new data becomes available.