Three Tropical Cyclones Spin in the South Pacific: An Unusual Occurrence
Introduction
Three tropical cyclones, Rae, Seru, and Alfred, are currently swirling in the South Pacific, an event that scientists consider unusual. These storms are also known as hurricanes when they form in the North Atlantic, but are essentially the same phenomenon. The region is in the peak of a season that starts in November and ends in April, which is typically a busy period for tropical cyclones.
How Unusual is This?
"It’s not incredibly unusual to have three hurricanes simultaneously in the month of September in the North Atlantic," said Brian Tang, an atmospheric science professor at the University at Albany. "Certainly, it is a very busy period for the South Pacific and three tropical cyclones is a lot to happen at once, but not unprecedented." The last time three such storms occurred in the South Pacific was in January 2021, when Lucas, Ana, and Bina were churning simultaneously. However, it’s not clear if Bina officially reached Category 1 status, Tang noted.
Where Are These Storms and Have They Caused Damage?
Rae formed north of Fiji on Friday, bringing whipping winds and heavy rain that damaged fruit trees, according to local reports. Alfred developed in the Coral Sea on Monday and is expected to bring flooding rains to the northeast Australian state of Queensland this weekend. Seru became a cyclone on Tuesday and is expected to track near the island nation of Vanuatu but remain offshore.
What Caused Three Cyclones at the Same Time?
Scientists are hard-pressed to pinpoint an explanation, but any explanation starts with the high activity that’s usual this time of year. Gabriel Vecchi, a climate scientist at Princeton University, noted evidence of what’s called a Madden–Julian Oscillation – a fluctuation in the atmosphere that results in a blob of rising air and rainfall that circles the globe and lasts for 30 days or longer. He said it seems to be tracking over the southwest Pacific in a way that could enhance cyclone activity.
"The atmosphere is chaotic. There’s a lot of natural fluctuation in it … we need to be open to the possibility that factors that are beyond our ability to predict might have led to these three cyclones at the same time," said Vecchi.
Conclusion
The simultaneous occurrence of three tropical cyclones in the South Pacific is an unusual event, but not unprecedented. The region is in the peak of a season that starts in November and ends in April, which is typically a busy period for tropical cyclones. While scientists are still trying to understand the factors that led to this event, it’s clear that the high activity this time of year is a key factor.
FAQs
- How many tropical cyclones are currently active in the South Pacific?
Three: Rae, Seru, and Alfred. - Where are the storms currently located?
Rae is north of Fiji, Alfred is in the Coral Sea, and Seru is expected to track near Vanuatu. - Have the storms caused any damage?
Yes, Rae brought heavy rain and damaged fruit trees in Fiji, while Alfred is expected to bring flooding rains to northeast Australia. Seru is expected to remain offshore and not cause significant damage. - What is the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and how does it affect tropical cyclone activity?
The Madden–Julian Oscillation is a fluctuation in the atmosphere that results in a blob of rising air and rainfall that circles the globe and lasts for 30 days or longer. It can enhance cyclone activity.
