Ocean Temperatures Fuel Intense Hurricanes
Ocean temperatures made higher by human-caused climate change are fueling more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic.
A New Study Reveals Alarming Trends
A new study published in Environmental Research: Climate found that climate change increased the intensity for most Atlantic hurricanes between 2019 and 2023, and for every storm so far in 2024.
To be specific, climate change caused the maximum wind speeds generated by roughly 80% of Atlantic Basin hurricanes from 2019 and 2023 to intensify by an average of 18 miles per hour, according to the peer-reviewed study. These hurricanes were fueled by sea surface temperatures made higher by human-caused global warming.
Ten Categories Stronger Storms
The study identified three storms that strengthened into Category 5 (strongest) hurricanes because of climate change: Lorenzo (2019), Ian (2022), and Lee (2023).
Damaging Consequences
Potential damages from winds associated with each storm category (1 to 5) increase by roughly four times with each jump in category, according to NOAA’s assessment of hurricane damage potential. But even smaller increases in wind speed, without a category change, can dramatically increase potential damage.
Updated Analysis for 2024 Season
Another report expanded the methodology of the study to just the 2024 season. Findings show that maximum wind speeds for all 11 hurricanes to date in 2024 were increased by 9 to 28 miles per hour because of elevated sea surface temperatures caused by climate change.
This analysis also identifies two additional storms – Beryl and Milton – whose development into Category 5 hurricanes would have been unlikely without the influence of climate change.
Hurricane Milton: Record-Setting Temperature
Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified by 120 miles per hour in less than 36 hours over waters whose temperatures were made 400-800 times more likely by climate change, according to an analysis utilizing the Climate Shift Index: Ocean tool from Climate Central. Those record-setting temperatures — commonly more than 3℉ above normal — would be virtually impossible without the influence of carbon pollution.
Climate Change Contributions
Climate change was also found to be a key driver of the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene earlier this year, according to a World Weather Attribution study. For example, the inland rains over Appalachia, including western North Carolina, were made about 70% more likely by climate change. Helene left behind the highest U.S. death toll from a hurricane since Katrina in 2005.
Frequency of Hurricane Helene’s Intensity
The frequency of hurricanes of Helene’s intensity in the area where it made landfall in Florida is expected to increase by about 150% in a warmer world, leading to return periods of once every 53 years instead of once every 130 years when the planet was 1.3 degrees Celsius cooler than today. The maximum windspeeds of similar storms in today’s climate are now about 14 miles per hour stronger than in the past.
Conclusion
Fortunately, the 2024 season is almost over, and the cold front that just crossed Florida is a sign that we’re likely done with hurricane threats for the year.
FAQs
- How has climate change affected Atlantic hurricane intensity? According to the study, climate change caused the maximum wind speeds generated by roughly 80% of Atlantic Basin hurricanes from 2019 and 2023 to intensify by an average of 18 miles per hour.
- What was the impact on Hurricane Milton? Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified by 120 miles per hour in less than 36 hours over waters whose temperatures were made 400-800 times more likely by climate change.
- What is the estimated increase in frequency of hurricane Helene’s intensity in a warmer world? The frequency of hurricanes of Helene’s intensity in the area where it made landfall in Florida is expected to increase by about 150% in a warmer world.
