Hurricane Rafael Makes Landfall in Cuba
Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday as a major Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour. It intensified very rapidly, gaining 55 mph in windspeed in a span of 24 hours, which fell just short of the threshold of “extremely rapid intensification” which starts at 58 mph in 24 hours.
Impact on Western Cuba
Rafael brought a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding to parts of western Cuba as it made landfall in the province of Artemisa. It weakened over land, exiting Cuba as a Category 2 on Wednesday evening.
Future Trajectory
Now over the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane has taken a sharp left turn and appears headed for the western Gulf. Florida, therefore, is not expected to feel any direct impacts from Rafael. However, there are several factors that could influence its future trajectory and intensity.
Westerly Winds and Wind Shear
November is a month in which the Gulf of Mexico transitions pretty quickly to a wintertime regime. That means that westerly winds aloft strengthen as the jet stream dips further south. Those west winds will be roaring across the northern Gulf this weekend, and if Rafael were to lean a little more northwest, it would rapidly dissipate. But there’s a chance it heads a bit south of due west, in which case it could escape the strongest wind shear and survive beyond the weekend.
Dry Air and Other Factors
However, there is also quite a bit of dry air in the western Gulf. Even if Rafael can escape the wind shear, the dry air could also do a number on it. In summary, there are many reasons to think that, after the Cayman Islands and Cuba, Rafael won’t be a bother to any other populations.
Other Activity in the Atlantic
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there’s not much to be concerned about. An area of low pressure forming near and north of Puerto Rico has a slight chance for tropical development between now and the weekend. But it’s expected to degenerate into a remnant area of clouds and showers which could bring slight chance of rain to South Florida late this weekend or early next week.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Update
The Atlantic hurricane season as a whole continues to run significantly above normal. The number of hurricanes and major hurricanes is 161% of normal for this stage of the season. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which counts both the number of tropical systems and their intensity, is 30% above normal.
Conclusion
Hurricane Rafael has made landfall in Cuba as a major Category 3 storm, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall to parts of the island. While its future trajectory is uncertain, there are several factors that suggest it may not pose a significant threat to other populations. The Atlantic hurricane season continues to be above normal, with multiple systems already impacting the region.
FAQs
Q: What was the maximum sustained wind speed of Hurricane Rafael?
A: Maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour.
Q: Where did Hurricane Rafael make landfall?
A: Western Cuba, in the province of Artemisa.
Q: Is Florida expected to feel any direct impacts from Hurricane Rafael?
A: No, Florida is not expected to feel any direct impacts from Rafael.
Q: What is the current status of the Atlantic hurricane season?
A: The season is running significantly above normal, with 161% of normal hurricanes and major hurricanes, and 30% above normal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).
